posted November 4, 2009 at 17:08 EST in NCAA F Free Picks
College Football Game of the Week - #9 LSU Tigers at #3 Alabama Crimson Tide
by Aaron Torres
No. 9 LSU Tigers (7-1 SU, 4-3-1 ATS) at No. 3 Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0 SU, 6-2 ATS)
Saturday, November 7: 3:30 p.m.
BetUS.com Football Betting Odds: Alabama -7 ½, Total Points 38
Here are some BetUS.com Betting Trends Which May Impact This Game:
- LSU: 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games
- LSU: 5-9-1 ATS in their last 9 road games
- LSU: Total has gone UNDER in 6 of their last 7 games
- Alabama: 5-0 SU in their last 5 home games
- Alabama: 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games
- Alabama: Total has gone UNDER in 4 of their last 5 games
One of college football’s oldest and fiercest rivalries will take place Saturday afternoon, when the LSU Tigers and Alabama Crimson Tide battle for first place in the SEC West.
Alabama is striving for their second straight undefeated regular season under third year head coach Nick Saban. Coming off a bye week, they’ll look to get a stagnant offense going in the right direction.
In their last three games, the Crimson Tide have actually had just two offensive touchdowns. A large part of that is due to the struggles of quarterback Greg McElroy. While the junior was sharp early, he has struggled mightily as of late. While his season totals show 14 touchdowns to just five interceptions, it is important to note that he hasn’t thrown a single touchdown since November 3 against Kentucky.
Luckily for McElroy, he is helped out by a powerful running game, led by sophomore Mark Ingram. Ingram is making a strong case for the Heisman Trophy this season, as he’s rushed for over 1000 yards and eight touchdowns in 2009. His single best game came three weeks ago against South Carolina, when he rushed for 246 yards and a score.
Luckily for Alabama, while their offense has been struggling, their defense has been thriving, carrying the Crimson Tide through the tough part of their season. Look around this unit and there are future NFL stars everywhere, from defensive tackle Terrence Cody, to linebacker Rolando McClain to cornerback Javier Arenas. On the season, this may be college football’s best overall unit, as they in the top five in scoring defense (No. 5), total defense (No. 3) and rushing defense (No. 2). However, they have yet to face a team with as much overall offensive talent as LSU.
For LSU, they know what’s at stake. If they win the rest of their games (including Saturday), it will be they- not Alabama- that represents the SEC West in the conference championship game.Offensively, this group has been much better since coming off a bye two weeks ago, outscoring their opposition 73-10 in the last two games. Quarterback Jordan Jefferson seems to have found his groove over that time as well, completing over 65 percent of his passes for four touchdowns and just one interception. He may have the best wide receiving corps in all of college football as well, as Brandon LaFell, Trindon Holliday, Terrence Tolliver and Ruben Randle are all superstars.
Defensively the Tigers have been underrated, as on the season, they’ve given up just 12 points per game, ranked seventh in college football.
The SEC West all comes down to this game. If Alabama wins, they’ll all but wrap up the division, whereas if LSU wins they would hold a tiebreak over the Crimson Tide.
The key in this one will be which McElroy shows up. If he used the bye week to get better, and reverts to his old form, Alabama will be ok. But if he hasn’t improved any, this team could be in trouble, as they’ll be stuck trying with nothing but the run game offensively.
While I think that the Crimson Tide win, I believe it will be close. As with all of Alabama’s games, they’ll focus on defense and field position, and I expect kicker Leigh Tiffin to remain busy, as he’s been their primary source of offense. Alabama wins, but LSU covers the 7 ½ points they’re getting in this week’s college football betting odds.
Aaron’s Pick: LSU +7 ½
