posted January 8, 2009 at 10:15 EST in NCAA F Free Picks
BCS National Championship - In Depth Analysis
by Charles Jay
Florida Gators vs Oklahoma Sooners
BetUS BCS Championship betting odds: FLORIDA -4, Total 70
NOTABLE STAT: Oklahoma and Florida are ranked first and second in turnover margin
KEY NFL FOOTBALL BETTING TREND: Both teams are 20-4 ATS combined this year
In the BetUS BCS Championship football betting odds, the Gators are listed as a four-point favorite, with a posted total of 70 points.
Here are some NCAAF betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
* FLA has won 15 of its last 17 games SU
* FLA has covered 14 of its last 17 games
* FLA has covered its last eight games
* FLA has played six of its last seven games OVER the total
* OKLA has won its last seven games SU
* OKLA has won 18 of its last 21 games SU
* OKLA has covered its last six games
* OKLA has played its last nine games OVER the total
These two teams have posted their share of monster numbers this season. Oklahoma leads the nation with a +24 turnover ratio, while Florida was second at +19. Oklahoma averaged 54 points a game, compared with 43 ppg by Florida. The Gators gained 420 yards a game, while Oklahoma's offensive output was a whopping 568 yards per outing. Since suffering their only loss of the season, the Sooners have outscored foes by a 419-205 margin, while the Gators have bested their opposition by a 445-117 gap. Oklahoma has topped 50 points nine times, and registered 60 points or more in each of its last five games, while Florida has scored 50 points or more five times.
On the pointspread side, both of these teams have covered 10 of their 12 lined games (the Florida line against Miami varied; some people won with the Gators). Florida played six of its last seven games over the total, while Oklahoma went over in each of its last nine contests.
Both of these teams has a Heisman Trophy winner piloting the offense. Sam Bradford, who ranked #1 in the country in passing efficiency, completed 68% of his passes with 48 touchdowns and only six interceptions, and his 10.1 yards per attempt was second only to Tulsa's David Johnson. Tim Tebow ranked third in passing efficiency, with a 65% completion rate, 9.4 yards an attempt and 28 touchdowns with just TWO interceptions.
By design, Florida is a team that doesn't rely on just one back out of its spread, but gets the ball into the hands of a number of speedsters, on misdirection plays and jet sweeps. And "spread" is the operative word, as they spread it around pretty good. Chris Rainey, Jeffrey Demps, Percy Harvin and Tebow all have between 538 and 655 yards. That's balance. Throw in Emmanuel Moody's 417 yards and you've got a team bringing a formidable ground attack, which is rated #11 in all of Division I football. .
The individual receiving numbers aren't astounding, but no one who has watched them would doubt the ability of either Harvin (35 receptions) or Louis Murphy (36 catches) to make very big plays. Nine different receivers have caught touchdown passes for Florida, which ranks 3rd in the nation is scoring.
Oklahoma not only has a 1000-yard rusher, it has TWO of them - Chris Brown (1110 yards) and DeMarco Murray (1002). Together, these two backs combined for 34 touchdowns. Bradford has a tremendous array of receivers to work with, including Juaquin Iglesias (69 catches for 1092 yards), Manuel Johnson (38 for 685), Ryan Broyles (42 for 661) and the fantastic tight end, Jermaine Gresham (58 for 888).
So if you're talking balance, it would be hard to do it any better than the Sooners. Oklahoma ranks 18th in rushing, third in passing and is at the top of the heap in scoring, which is no surprise. They protect the passer well (just 11 sacks allowed). Bradford has passed for 4464 yards, and since the loss to Texas, he has thrown 25 touchdowns, with just ONE interception. That's astounding.
It might sound a bit cheap to say that Tebow has the overall quarterback edge because of his running abilities, but it is not only something not to be discounted, it is part of the overall fabric of Florida's attack. The Gators, under Urban Meyer, run a spread option, but it different from most other spread options in that this team can run or pass equally well out of it. Tebow, who gained 564 yards and scored 12 TD's on the ground, not only can execute designed plays, he can probably avoid a good pass rush a little better than Bradford, who is not as nimble.
There is certainly something to be said for Oklahoma's ability to score 52 points on a BCS team (Cincinnati) and 35 against a club that will finish in the top ten with one of the nation's best defenses (TCU). And those five straight 60-point outbursts to close out the season were frightening. It should probably be understood, however, that a priority for the Sooners, at least down the stretch, was rolling up margins in order to make up some ground in the polls, and for that reason there was something gratuitous about some of those point totals.
At the same time, part of creating big margins between yourself and an opponent involves stopping them, and Oklahoma's defense demonstrated time and time again that it gave ground. Does that illustrate a big difference-maker in analyzing these teams? Well, Oklahoma ranked 16th in the nation against the rush, allowing only 3.2 yards a carry, but they were 98th in passing defense, burned for 253 yards a contest. Admittedly, however, these numbers were registered by teams who often fell way behind. Where Florida gave up 21 points or more only twice all year, Oklahoma did it nine times, and this team surrendered 42 TD's on the season, compared to just 16 by Florida. That is quite a difference, now matter how much you spin it.
We'll try, however.
Florida's defense posted some of the best numbers in the country. The Gators allowed just 3.3 yards a carry and only ten touchdown passes, grabbing 24 interceptions. Opponents only completed 52% of their passes against the Gators.
Still, what bothers us by using that as a barometer is that Florida faced few teams who really knew how to move the ball through the air. Hawai'i did not have Colt Brennan anymore, and they didn't get their footing until late in the year. Miami had freshmen who struggled. So did South Carolina. Tennessee and Arkansas were neophytes. LSU has much the same problem, with their young QB's. Kentucky was positively non-offensive. Georgia's Matthew Stafford is overrated, as is Alabama's John Parker Wilson. Vanderbilt and Florida State? Hardly offensive juggernauts. See what I'm saying? Oklahoma faced innovative, balanced offenses in Texas, Kansas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and Missouri, and there is something to the statement on the part of Oklahoma cornerback Dominique Franks, who said that Tim Tebow would be the fourth best quarterback in the Big 12.
To underscore how the respective defensive figures can be deceiving, let's take a closer look at who these teams have faced. While Oklahoma has gone up against six quarterbacks rated in the top 20 in passing efficiency, and ELEVEN in the top fifty, Florida has faced only one in the top 20 and two in the top fifty. The Sooners have defended against no less than twelve of the top 40 receivers, while Florida has not encountered even one of the top forty.
Dezmon Briscoe caught 12 passes for 269 yards against the Oklahoma secondary, but a lot of receivers have underachieved against the Sooners. Michael Crabtree caught six passes for 62 yards against them. Jeremy Maclin had seven catches for 46 yards. Dez Bryant only had 91 yards. They can slow someone down if they need to.
In the way of full disclosure, Florida has faced ten of the nation's top 40 defenses, and scored a lot of points against many of them. However, I'm not sure about Tebow's ability to carry this team on his arm alone. His game is to mix things up, and use the threat of the run to set up the pass. That's why Oklahoma's defensive game plan is going to involve stopping the run first and forcing him to the air. Sure, the guy played relatively mistake-free, but can he make the same kind of throws Bradford can? We don't think so. Can Percy Harvin make the same kind of game-changing plays if he is not 100% off his ankle sprain? Maybe, maybe not.
Bradford ran roughshod over that Cincinnati defense, which has some future NFL players on it. The Sooners scored 35 points and gained 436 yards against a TCU defense that ranked #1 in total defense and #2 in scoring defense. These guys are not artificial, even if a few of their scoring totals were overblown.
We recognize that Florida, which ranks in the top ten in net punting and punt returns, may be able to extract an edge on special teams, and are not going to pretend that Oklahoma has the better defensive team, but we are saying that there is nothing they'll see in this game that they haven't seen before, not when you have dealt with the likes of Graham Harrell, Michael Crabtree, Kendall Hunter, Colt McCoy, Zac Robinson, Dez Bryant, Chase Coffman, Chase Daniel, Kerry Meier, Jordan Shipley, Quan Cosby, Jeremy Maclin, etc., etc. etc.
We're not too crazy about the way Bob Stoops has prepared for his last two bowl games, but he has won a national title and played for it on two other occasions. He is bringing more speed into this contest, and a better quarterback, than he has in any of those title games. This game can legitimately go either way, so we're wiser to grab the points with Oklahoma in the BetUS NCAA football betting odds, though it is not a major play.
We like the total better. As mentioned, there were some gratuitous point totals on the part of Oklahoma, and on Florida's part too, so you don't want to be deceived by sheer numbers. Both of these units have enough speed to disrupt a lot of what the other team can do. Both teams will try to run the ball, although Florida will probably do it out of necessity a little more. We will also reiterate that the Sooners will do better on defense than expected. We're going under the 70 points as posted at BetUS Sportsbook.
JAY'S PLAYS: OKLAHOMA +4 ** and UNDER 70 ***
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)
(Charles Jay couldn’t quarterback his way out of a paper bag, but he scores touchdowns as a regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker Room)
