posted July 1, 2008 at 15:13 in NCAA F Betting Trends

The Michigan Wolverines finished the 2007 – 2008 NCAA football betting season with a spirited win over the much more highly-touted, and BetUS online sportsbook favorite, Florida Gators in the Capital One Bowl. Lloyd Carr, who couldn’t beat the Ohio State Buckeyes with the 1978 Pittsburgh Steelers, ended his career at Michigan a winner.

But almost immediately after the Wolverine’s victory, all eyes turned to the 2008 – 2009 season with former West Virginia coach, Rich Rodriguez, taking over as the head man in Ann Arbor.

Because Rodriguez runs a spread-option attack, almost every single Michigan player looked to the future and appeared somewhat dismayed. Both starting wide receivers, Mario Manningham and Adrian Arrington, bolted to the NFL. Michigan’s projected starting quarterback, before the Rodriguez hire, Ryan Mallet, took his game to Arkansas where he will have to sit out a year and then gets the added benefit of playing for the backbone lacking Bobby Petrino.

That left Rodriguez in a difficult situation going into spring training. He didn’t have a starting quarterback, a starting running back; Mike Hart went to the NFL as well, starting wide receivers or a starting quarterback. How have the Michigan Wolverines faired?

Good and bad. On the good side, the Wolverines might have found a starting quarterback in Georgia Tech transfer Steven Threet who has emerged as the best leader on the offensive-side of the ball. He’s still trying to absorb Rodriguez’s extremely difficult offensive scheme, but he’s got time and Rodriguez is a smart enough coach not to throw the kid to the wolves.

Michigan also found two solid running backs to take some pressure off Threet in Brandon Minor and Kevin Grady. Both fellas impressed Coach Rodriguez to the point where he’s seriously thinking about using both of them in the backfield this year. Rodriguez doesn’t exactly have Pat White, Steve Slaton and Noel Devine back there, but Threet, Minor and Grady do give the Wolverine’s something to work with.

Okay, that’s the good stuff. Now, the bad stuff. The Michigan Wolverines are decimated on the offensive-line. That’s not a good thing. Before the Rodriguez hire was announced, the Wolverines had lost offensive linemen Alex Mitchell and Jeremy Ciulla. Top left-tackle Jake Long became the number one pick in this year’s NFL Draft. Then, in a strange occurrence, starting tackle Jeremy Boren decided to transfer from Michigan to Ohio State (that was a stick in the eye!) after deciding that Michigan had lost “its family values”. I’m not sure what Boren means by that. Each to his own, I guess.

In any case, without an offensive line it really doesn’t matter how good the Michigan Wolverines will be on the offensive side. Whether it’s a spread offense or a simple two-wide receiver, two-tight-end, one running back set, you need an offensive line to be successful in the Big-Ten. Bottom line.

Which brings me to the most important aspect of the Michigan Wolverines - - do they have enough, with all of their changes, to win the Big-Ten Conference and then the BCS National Championship.

First, let’s take a look at the Big Ten Conference. The Wolverines are currently at 5 to 1 on the BetUS online sportsbook futures page. At odds of 5 to 1, the Wolverines are listed as the fourth choice in the Big-Ten after Ohio State at 6/5, Wisonsin at 5/2 and Illinois at 4/1.

I have to say that the odds are too low for me to take a stab on the Wolverines. Yes, I do believe that they could win the Big-Ten but with their issues on the offensive line, and the fact that they are trying to teach one of the most difficult offensive schemes in college football to a bunch of kids in less then six months doesn’t give me confidence.

I’d much rather take a stab on these guys to win the BCS National Championship. In some ways it’s not logical - - if I believe they can win the BCS National Championship, then I have to believe that they can win the Big-Ten - - but I’m looking solely at their chances based on the odds. They are an underlay at 5 to 1, but at their BetUS online betting odds to win the BSC Championship, the Michigan Wolverines are an overlay.

The BetUS online wagering odds on the Michigan Wolverines to win the BSC Championship are…hey, I don’t even see the odds on the board regarding the Michigan Wolverines! What does that tell me? That once BetUS does assign online betting odds, they will be juicy!

I’ll wait for those odds to come out. The Wolverines could surprise some folks at online betting odds of 75 to 100 to 1 to win the BSC Championship. I have to like them. Why? Because even though Rodriguez is working hard to instill his offense, opposing defenses are going to have to work even harder to stop his offense.

Nobody in the Big-Ten has ever seen anything like this, on this level, and that could make the Michigan Wolverines a big sleeper this year.

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