posted August 19, 2008 at 15:15 in NCAA F Betting Trends
Colorado vs. Colorado State – Life after Lubick
by BetUS Staff
They're not wasting any time getting the brawl underway in the 2008 NCAA football season. The Colorado Buffaloes (6-7 SU & ATS in 2007) will come out of the gate facing their hated rivals, the Rams of Colorado State (3-9 SU, 5-6 ATS) in the annual grudge match that is set to kick off on Sunday, August 31 at 7:30 PM ET, at the neutral site of Inesco Field at Mile High in Denver.
Sunday, August 31
BetUS NCAA Football Betting Odds: COLORADO -11.5
Here are some of the NCAA college football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
* COL has lost five of its last seven games SU
* COL has covered two of its last seven games
* COL has played its last five games OVER the total
* CSU has lost 16 of its last 19 games SU
* CSU has covered four of its last five games
* CSU has played three of its last four games UNDER the total
* COL has won four of the last five meetings SU
* CSU has covered four of the last six meetings
It is Dan Hawkins' third year at the helm in Boulder, and his team progressed from a 2-10 finish in 2006 to a 6-7 overall slate last year, which included a bowl appearance as they lost to Alabama in the Independence. Colorado also pulled a 27-24 upset over Oklahoma, beat Texas Tech by five, played Florida State and Kansas very tough, and exploded for 65 points in the season finale against Nebraska.
The spread is in play at Colorado, and the coach's son, Cody Hawkins, does a pretty good job of running it, although he lacks size (5'11") and is not a prolific passer (3015 yards, 22 TD's, but 17 INT's). He is going to make his mistakes. This season the big news on offense is that the Buffs added a couple of dynamic running backs to the mix. On e of them is ray Ray Polk, who was one of the top 40 running backs available. But the other is Darrell Scott, who may have been the top running back in high school football last year.
Coach Hawkins does not want to place too heavy a burden on Scott, but there may not be a way around it. He is just that talented. And with reinforcements, this is a Colorado backfield that is going to drive opponents up a wall. And with eight starters coming back on a defense that was rated 64th in the nation, the Buffs should be able to navigate its way through the Big 12 schedule well enough to land in another bowl game.
Colorado State will probably have a much tougher road to a bowl game. Not because they're in a more competitive conference, mind you, but because they have lost their top three receivers, return only five starts on defense, and have to break in a new quarterback. It's Billy Farris, a fifth-year senior who threw only eight passes all of last season.
Steve Fairchild has taken over the coaching reins from Sonny Lubick, who spent 15 seasons in Fort Collins. Fairchild come with a good resume, having served as offensive coordinator for both the St. Louis Rams and Buffalo Bills. And even though his returnees at the skill positions are few, he has the entire offensive line coming back.
You know, recent history indicates that this is always a closely-contested game; in fact, the last six games have been decided by 25 total points. But there is more change at Colorado State than at any time in recent memory. And the Rams' defense was porous against the run last season, allowing 4.9 yards a carry. One can see the heralded Scott and Polk taking control in their college debuts, as Hawkins (both senior and junior) makes the imaginative spread even more confusing to deal with.
Due to the fundamental edges, we will lay the points with Colorado, the 11.5-point favorite in the BetUS NCAA college football betting odds.
JAY'S PLAY: COLORADO -11.5 **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)
(Charles Jay of www.ebookies.com gives it more than the old college try as a contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)