posted January 5, 2009 at 10:30 EST in NCAA F Articles
Fiesta Bowl Preview - Ohio vs Texas
by BetUS Staff
When two teams that had preseason Bowl Championship Series title game aspirations meet in a bowl game other than the grand finale, one factor outweighs all others for handicappers focused on college football betting: Motivation.
With that in mind, expect No. 10 Ohio State (10-2, 5-6 ATS) and No. 3 Texas (11-1, 9-3 ATS) to be fired up and ready to go when the schools clash in the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl on Monday night at University of Phoenix Stadium.
You’d think both teams could be in for a letdown considering they both wanted to play in the BCS title showdown on Thursday, but that’s the furthest thing from reality. The Longhorns and their backers think their team is the best in the nation, and they definitely have a case considering Texas defeated No. 1 Oklahoma 45-35 as 7-point underdogs at the Cotton Bowl on October 11.
Right or not, the Longhorns are hoping to use the battle with the Buckeyes to prove the BCS made a mistake by excluding them from the title game. Oddsmakers have responded in kind, listing Texas as 8-point chalk for the contest, with the total listed at 51.5 points.
The 8-point tag represents a smaller number than the 10-point number originally put on the Longhorns when betting opened nearly a month ago. Public players have been all over Texas since the line was posted, with just over 69% of wagers on the spread having come in on the Longhorns through Sunday night.
With the public and pundits alike dismissing Ohio State as a decent team representing a weak power conference, therein lies the motivation for the Buckeyes. OSU has dropped two consecutive BCS title-game matchups, (to Florida in 2006 and Louisiana State in 2007) leading many to handicap the Big Ten as inferior to the SEC, Big 12, and other prime time conferences.
Those cappers are probably right on the money; The Big Ten is 15-27 SU in Bowl games since 2003, and has lost five of six postseason contests straight up this year. For their part, the Buckeyes didn’t do much to shore up public confidence in their league: Ohio State (+10.5) was smacked 35-3 at USC early in the season, and followed that up by losing 13-6 at home to Penn State as 1.5-point pups to all but eliminate it from BCS title game contention.
With the Buckeyes playing for some serious pride, the Longhorns could actually grab a piece of the national championship with a convincing win on Monday. If Texas handles Ohio State and Oklahoma manages to take down Florida in the BCS title game on Thursday, the Associated Press poll could very well list the Longhorns as the No. 1 team in the country based on their previous victory over the Sooners.
The key to the cover for the Buckeyes is stopping the Longhorns’ pass rush. Ohio State’s offensive line was completely overwhelmed in the BCS finale two years ago against Florida, and didn’t fare much better last season against Glenn Dorsey and the LSU front seven. If the Buckeyes can find a way to keep Texas’ defensive end Brian Orakpo at bay, it will be easier going for quarterback Terrelle Pryor.
Another way the Buckeyes will look to keep the Longhorns defense honest is to establish star running back Beanie Wells, who figures to be the focal point of the Buckeyes’ attack. Wells averaged 121 yards rushing per game this season, but goes up against a Longhorns defense that held opponents to an impressive 2.8 yards per carry in the pass-happy Big 12.
Texas has a weapon of its own in QB Colt McCoy, who barely missed out on taking home the Heisman Trophy this season. McCoy is a much better quarterback than the one Ohio State saw when it defeated the Longhorns two years ago, as the gunslinger completed 77.6% of his passes for 3,445 yards with 32 touchdowns and only seven interceptions this season.
