Central Michigan Chippewas at Purdue Boilermakers

A donnybrook could very well break out on Saturday in Lafayette, IN, as the Purdue Boilermakers (1-1 SU, 1-0 ATS) play host to the Central Michigan Chippewas (2-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) in a matchup between teams that played two wild ones last season, set for a Noon ET kickoff at Ross-Ade Stadium (natural turf).

Saturday, September 20

BetUS NCAA Betting Odds: PURDUE -10.5, Total 63.5

Here are some of the NCAA football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* CMU has won nine of its last 13 games SU

* CMU has won five of its last seven road games SU

* CMU has played eight of its last nine road games OVER the total

* PUR has lost four of its last six games SU

* PUR has won 14 of its last 19 home games SU

Also...

* PUR has won all four meetings SU

* PUR has covered three of the four meetings

These two teams played twice last year. On September 15, Purdue beat up on Central by a 45-22 score, as Curtis Painter completed 29 of 39 for 360 yards and three scores. But it was the encore, in the Motor City Bowl, that was most entertaining, as Painter completed 35 passes for 546 yards (a school record) and three TD's in the thrilling 51-48 Purdue win.

Painter's counterpart with Central Michigan, Dan LeFevour, was only 17 for 34 in that game, but he threw for four TD's without an interception (Painter was picked off twice). LeFevour, a junior, is one of the most highly-regarded college quarterbacks in the minds of the pro scouts; he is mobile and can throw the ball; he's currently thrown for 828 yards and has gained 7511 yards and 58 TD's on his career.

Obviously, one of these two teams defends better. Central Michigan is ranked 108th in pass defense, allowing 285 yards a game, not to mention 14.5 yards a completion. They are also one of just seven Division I teams without an interception. Purdue, by contrast, has permitted just 52% completions with its improved defense. The Boilermakers also have the requisite running game behind NFL prospect Kory Sheets (180 yards against Oregon) that can push this number, while CMU is going to struggle finding anyone besides LeFevour who can actually carry the ball.

There are two concerns about Purdue in this game. One of them is that the Boilermakers' psyche may be damaged, having blown a 20-3 lead at home against Oregon, only to lose 32-26 in two overtimes. Another is that Painter threw the ball 50 times last week, for only 207 yards (a little more than four yards an attempt).

Nonetheless, a better defense and a better running game will make the difference in this game, which should be high-scoring, so we'll lay the points with Purdue, the 10.5-point favorite in the BetUS NCAA football betting odds, AND go over the 63.5-point total.

JAY'S PLAY: PURDUE -10.5 ** and OVER 63.5 ***

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

(Charles Jay of http://www.ebookies.com gives it more than the old college try as a contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)