Possible Sweet 16 Upset Alert - (4) Xavier vs. (1) Pittsburgh

Xavier Musketeers (27-7 SU, 17-12-3 ATS) vs. Pittsburgh Panthers (30-4 SU, 17-11 ATS)

NCAA Tournament (@ Boston)

BetUS NCAAB Odds: PITTSBURGH -7, Total 138.5

Here are some of the NCAA basketball sports betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* XAV has covered five of its last seven games

* XAV has won 18 of its last 23 games SU

* XAV has played four of its last five games UNDER the total

* PITT has won 12 of its last 14 games SU

* PITT has covered three of its last eight games

* PITT has played three of its last four games UNDER the total

Pittsburgh has failed on four occasions in the last seven years to reach the Elite Eight, while Xavier did it last year with its veteran ballclub that included outstanding guards like Drew Lavender and Stanley "Not the Hammer" Burrell. It was suggested by many observers that Pittsburgh, which has an outstanding recent history in the Big East tournament, may have often hurt their chances in the Big Dance because they had over-extended themselves playing in post-season conference action, with not enough left when it came time to move through the brackets. There was no such excuse this year, as the Panthers were eliminated early. Yet Pitt has not been overly impressive thus far, struggling a bit against East Tennessee State and failing to cover against an Oklahoma State team that didn't have any size to put forth.

Obviously we're not complaining much about DeJuan Blair, the big guy up front. He's had 28 rebounds in the tourney thus far, which is ahead of his average of 12.3 per contest. He did take a dip to 10 points against OSU after 27 in the opener. The guy who was huge for Pitt was Sam Young, with 32 points. Levance Fields dished out nine assists, and has almost a four-to-one ratio of assists to turnovers on the season.

Pitt has a "Big Three" that rivals just about anything out there, and Xavier doesn't have those kind of players. Rather, they are more of an ensemble, and a good one. Sean Miller, a former Pitt player, has assembled aggressive people who always give an intense, physical effort. One of the guys who may be overlooked nationally is Derrick Brown (13.7 ppg), who was on last year's regional finalist. Jason Love and Kenny Frease, both of whom will hold a height advantage, are a couple of the guys who can put a body on Blair. No, Xavier does not have a dynamic point guard, but there's a lot more democratic ball movement here, and B.J. Raymond, who plays more of a "swing" position, can drill it from the arc (42%).

Xavier does fundamental things very well. They defend with vigor (allowing 38.8% FG's) and they're not likely to be intimidated by Pittsburgh's prowess on the boards, since they have a +8.4 rebounding margin themselves. Pitt could well advance, but not without a struggle. The points are well worth taking with Xavier, the seven-point underdog in the BetUS NCAA Tournament sports betting odds.

JAY'S PLAY: XAVIER +7 ***

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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