posted March 20, 2008 at 13:13 in NCAA B Free Picks

BetUS NCAA college basketball betting odds: Duke vs. Belmont

The Belmont Bruins (25-8 SU, 4-2 ATS) bear very little resemblance to their namesakes from UCLA. But they will forge ahead anyway, diving into the NCAA tournament's West Regional, taking on the second-seeded Duke Blue Devils (27-5 SU, 16-13-2 ATS) in a first-round game to begin at 7:10 PM ET at the Verizon Center in Washington, DC.

At BetUS Sportsbook, Duke is listed as a 20-point favorite, with a total of 153 points.

Here are some of the NCAA college basketball betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* BEL has won its last 13 games SU
* BEL has played five of six posted games OVER the total
* DUKE is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games
* DUKE has won 17 of its last 21 games SU
* DUKE has played four of its last six games UNDER the total

Recent history indicates that high-quality teams have the ability to get out on the perimeter and thwart Belmont's preferred three-pointer-based game. Belmont made 10.6 threes a game, which was third in the country, and attempted nearly 29 per contest. Shooting slumps are not foreign to them, however; for example, they managed just 33% in the Atlantic Sun semifinals against East Tennessee State and 35% in the regular season finale against Gardner-Webb.

In the last two NCAA tournament games it has been involved in, both against high seeds of course, the Bruins hit less than 33% from the field and just 22% from three-point range.

When a team like Belmont takes the floor, it is essentially playing Duke's game, and Duke is better, more athletic and more dynamic in doing it. The Blue Devils ranked third nationally with 84 ppg and certainly isn't going to handicapped by its lack of size, since Belmont has only one starter bigger than 6'5".

If Duke decides it is going to "D-up" on the perimeter, this one has the potential to get out of hand early. Let's lay the points with Duke, the 20-point favorite in the BetUS March Madness betting odds.

JAY'S PLAY:  DUKE

(Charles Jay of http://www.eBookies.com gives it the old college try as a regular contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)

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