posted March 14, 2008 at 17:16 in NCAA B Free Picks
Pittsburgh Panthers (+ 2.5) vs. Marquette Golden Eagles (- 2.5)
Tip-off: 9:20 pm EST.
I didn’t think the Panthers beating the Louisville Cardinals yesterday was much of an upset. The Panthers are a very good team. They stumbled some going the down the stretch in the regular season this year, but they play defense very well. I like the Panthers going into the NCAA Tournament.
Marquette? Not so much. Even though the Golden Eagles have gone 7 and 3 against the BetUS spread in their last 10 games, I just don’t get that dominating feeling that I should from Marquette. They’ve got terrific guards, but play out of control sometimes and that loss to Syracuse by 15 points three games ago does not give me confidence. Here are some trends.
The Pitt Panthers are 13-3-1 against the spread in their last 17 games on a Friday night.
The Marquette Golden Eagles are 8 and 2 against the spread in their last 10 overall games.
The Over is 6 and 1 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams.
The Pitt Panthers are 2 and 6 against the spread in their last 8 games versus a team with a winning % of above .600.
The BetUS over/under in this game is 133.5 points. Although I do believe that this game has an excellent chance of going over, I think that the better wager is the money-line bet on the Pitt Panthers.
The Panthers are peaking at the right time. They were terrific versus Louisville yesterday by holding that team to only 69 points - - including overtime. That gives me confidence that the Panthers have solved their issues on the defensive side. With their defense playing well, there is no telling how far Pittsburgh can go not only in the Big East tournament but also in the NCAA Tournament.
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Marquette is a good team, but, like I wrote above, I do think that they tend to play without any discipline. That makes me wonder exactly how good they will fare not only in the Big Dance starting next week, but also in their game tonight against the Panthers.
The signs tell me to take a shot on the Panthers to win this game outright tonight.
The BetUS NCAA basketball money-line is Pitt Panthers + 125 to beat the Marquette Golden Eagles straight-up in tonight’s game at a neutral site.
My money will be on the Panthers to bring home the win.
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