posted March 19, 2008 at 18:21 EST in NCAA B Free Picks

BetUS NCAA college basketball betting odds: Michigan State -6.5, Total 134.5

The Temple Owls (21-12 SU, 21-10-2 ATS) are one of the hot teams in  the country right now, and on Thursday afternoon they will try to get past the first round of the NCAA tournament when they face the Michigan State Spartans (25-8 SU, 14-15-1 ATS) in the South Regional to be held in Denver and tipping off at 12:30 PM ET.

At BetUS Sportsbook, Michigan State is listed as a 6.5-point favorite, with a total of 134.5 points.

Here are some of the NCAA college basketball betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* TEM is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven games
* TEM has won its last seven games SU
* MSU has covered four of its last five games
* MSU has won 18 of its last 25 games SU
* MSU has played six of its last nine games OVER the total

Temple came out of nowhere to sweep its last four Atlantic 10 regular season games, then surged to a tournament win by beating NCAA-bound St. Joe's in the final. The Owls still take pretty good care of the ball, as they did in the John Chaney era (12.3 turnovers a game), but sometimes get bogged down on the glass (only 7.4 offensive rebounds/game), which is the big hope for the Spartans here.

Michigan State does a lot of things right, including shooting accurately (48.5% on the season). But this team did not come on strong toward the end of the schedule, as Tom Izzo's teams often have - at least the editions that were going places. And when MSU ventured out of Lansing, they simply struggled (5-8 SU), which their critics have suggested indicates a lack of mental toughness, something to which Izzo has more or less concurred.

I am not a huge fan of Drew Neitzel, Michigan State's floor leader who also hits nearly 40% from three-point range. In Temple's man-to-man defense (yes, man-to-man - Chaney and his matchup zone have departed the scene) Neitzel is going to be pressured by guards who have a size advantage on him. With Dionte Christmas (20 ppg) and Mark Tyndale (16 ppg), the Owls have a pair of 6'5" backcourt men who will tower over what Izzo's club has to offer. And don't expect Temple to falter much at the free throw line in the critical closing moments, as they hit almost 75% from the charity stripe.

This is major upset possibility. We will take the points with Temple, the 6.5-point underdog in the BetUS NCAA college basketball betting odds. And don't ignore the BetUS money line either, which has Temple posted at +240.

JAY'S PLAY:  TEMPLE

(Charles Jay of http://www.eBookies.com gives it the old college try as a regular contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)

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