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posted December 30, 2008 at 15:20 EST in NCAA B Free Picks

NCAA Basketball Action Ole Miss vs Southern Miss

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BetUS NCAA Basketball Betting Odds: SOUTHERN MISS -3

Here are some of the NCAA basketball online betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* MISS has won 14 of its last 20 games SU

* MISS has lost four of its last five road games SU

* MISS has played five of its last six road games OVER the total

* USM has won four of its last five games SU

* USM has won 10 of its last 11 home games SU

There's some revenge in the air here, as Ole Miss pounded out a 78-58 win last year. These teams don't meet all the time, but they have faced each other 20 times, with the Rebels winning 16 of them.

When Ole Miss tackled a strong Louisville team on December 18, coach Andy Kennedy was under something of a cloud, because he had just been arrested for assault in his old stomping grounds of Cincinnati. He comes into this one asserting his innocence, with the legal process taking shape. That night his team shot only 31% from the field but fought tooth-and-nail with the Cardinals before going down to a 77-68 defeat.

Things have changed quite a bit for Kennedy's team. That kind of thing will happen when your second leading scorer goes down and Chris Warren, who was averaging almost 20 points a game, tore his ACL in that game against Louisville and has been lost for the season. David Huertas, who carries a 20.4 ppg average into this contest and has hit almost 50% of his attempts, although he will probably be shooting a lot more now that Warren, who had 15.5 attempts a game, is out of action. The Rebels, who suffered a tough earlier injury when Eniel Polynice was lost, are going to be hard-pressed for more scoring options.

This is the kind of thing that could play well into Southern Miss coach Larry Eustachy's hands. Eustachy, the former mentor at Iowa State, is kind of legendary for the way he meticulously prepares for games, and there is no doubt that he will try to force Mississippi to get other people to make offensive plays. USM likes to grind it out, and they slow down their opponents at their end of the court, allowing a shade under 60 points per game.

Ole Miss may lack depth and size, but so does Southern Miss. The Rebels take pretty good care of the ball (12.6 turnovers per game), make their free throws (78.3%), and has shown us quite a bit even in losses to West Virginia and Louisville. They're much more proficient from beyond the arc (USM only makes 3,3 per game) and it has to count for something when you have the best offensive player on the floor (Huertas). This is not a bad formula when you're getting points on a neutral court, and we'll grab those points with Mississippi, the three-point underdog in the BetUS NCAA college basketball sports betting odds.

JAY'S PLAY: OLE MISS +3 ***

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

(Charles Jay doesn't play any defense, but he makes his share of shots from downtown as a contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)

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