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posted November 17, 2009 at 20:04 EST in NCAA B Free Picks

College Hoops Betting - Gonzaga at Michigan State (-10.5)

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Gonzaga Bulldogs (1-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) at Michigan State Spartans (1-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)

Tuesday, November 17 - 8 PM ET

BetUS NCAA Basketball Sports Betting Odds:  MICHIGAN STATE -10.5

Here are some of the NCAA basketball sports betting trends as they relate to this matchup:


  • GONZ has won 12 of its last 13 games SU
  • GONZ has covered one of its last five road games
  • GONZ has won eight of its last nine road games SU
  • GONZ has played eight of its last nine road games OVER the total
  • MSU has won six of its last seven games SU
  • MSU has won ten of its last 11 home games SU

One can only hope we have the kind of game we had the last time these two teams met, back in 2005 at the Maui Invitational, when Gonzaga emerged triumphant by a 109-106 score in triple overtime.

Tom Izzo's Michigan State squad was expected to be good last season, and they turned out to be just that. The Spartans never lost two games in row, and even though they lost in the Big Ten tournament to Ohio State, they rolled though USC, Kansas, Louisville and Connecticut to reach the championship game of the NCAA tournament, where they lost to North Carolina.  Gonzaga also lost to North Carolina in the tournament, getting blown out by a 98-77 score.

Gonzaga lost four very significant players in the off-season when Austin Daye, Micah Downs, Josh Heytvelt and Jeremy Pargo all departed the program. There is some rebuilding to do, and the 'Zags hope to do that with the likes of Elias Harris, a versatile 6'8" forward who played overseas last season, and returning veteran guard Matt Bouldin. They can go big up front with seven-footer Robert Sacre, for example, and that might be something they can take advantage of here. There is 7'5" Will Foster, who scored 24 points in 24 games in the 2008-2009 season.

Michigan State got off to a fast start, hitting the ground running against Florida Gulf Coast, cruising to a 97-58 win. There was enough balance to go around, and Kalin Lucas, who comes into the season as perhaps the nation's top point guard, had 21 points. It was very encouraging to see Derrick Nix, a highly-touted freshman newcomer, get 11 points and 14 rebounds. However, it was not good news that Delvon Roe, who disappointed as a heralded frosh last year, went scoreless and fouled out in 13 minutes, and that Raymar Morgan, one of the players who is really needed to make this team go, had no points while playing on a very painful ankle.

There is some high-level talent and experience on the Michigan State roster, but this team isn't at full strength at the moment. With injury and illness problems, Izzo operates without the depth he'd like to have, and that might mean the Spartans don't finish games as well as they could in the early going. A key for Gonzaga may be the play of the aforementioned Sacre, who had 17 points and nine rebounds in the season opener against Mississippi Valley State. In the past, the 'Zags have been able to make up for deficits in talent, and this well-coached team should be no exception.

They'll keep it competitive, enough to take the 10.5 points in the BetUS NCAA college basketball betting odds.

JAY'S PLAY:   GONZAGA +10.5 **

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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