posted March 14, 2008 at 19:23 in NCAA B Free Picks

Washington State Cougars (+ 3.5) vs. Stanford Cardinal (- 3.5)

Tip-off: 11:30 pm EST.

I pegged WASU as the first team in the Pac-10 to lose in the NCAA Tournament. I might still believe that even after the Cougars stomped all over my Pac-10 Tourney dark horse pick, the Oregon Ducks, yesterday in the Pac-10 Tournament. WASU was hot early in the season, not so hot late, but they have gone 6 and 4 against the BetUS spread in their last 10 games.

Stanford was very impressive last night in beating the Arizona Wildcats by 11 points last night. It was a close game in the first half but steady Stanford just kept at it in the second half and wore down the Wildcats’ defense. Stanford is the favorite in this game, but what do some of the trends say?

The WASU Cougars are 6 and 2 against the spread in their last 8 games on a Friday night.

The Stanford Cardinal is 5 and 1 against the spread in their last 6 games as a favorite in a game at a neutral site.

The WASU Cougars are 1 and 5 against the spread in the last 6 meetings between these two teams.

The Over is 8 and 1 in the Stanford Cardinal last 9 overall games.

The BetUS over/under in this game is 115 ½ points. That equates to a score of about 58 to 58. Even though both teams play a slow, dump it down onto the blocks, type game, the over appears awfully low for a Pac-10 match-up.

But the last time that these two teams met, the Cardinal beat the WASU Cougars by 7 points. The final score was 60 to 53. That was just 13 days ago. This game could definitely turn out differently tonight because the Cougars’ backs are sort of against the wall. They need to win tonight to secure a high NCAA Tournament seed.

The mixed signals regarding the BetUS over/under tells me to lay-off that bet. So I’m going to concentrate on the head to head match-up between the Cardinal and Cougars.

There is no doubt that the Cardinal is the better team. The duo of Robin and Brooke Lopez is tough for any team to handle. But when I look at the Cougars I look at a team that might be able to sneak a win tonight.

These teams are much closer then the score in their last game indicates. I see this as a potential BetUS money-line wager with the Cougars pulling an upset.

The BetUS ncaab money-line is Washington State Cougars + 115 to beat the Stanford Cardinal straight-up tonight.

To me, betting the money-line is worth it in this game. That’s where I’m going.

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