posted March 26, 2008 at 20:14 in NCAA B Articles

With two rounds down in the Big Dance, it's time to take a look at some of the trends that have taken shape in recent years as the field has whittled itself down to the final sixteen.

Part of the theme for BetUS Sportsbook college basketball bettors may be to look toward the dog, because it has been known to bark at this time of the year.

In the last three seasons of the NCAA Tournament, underdogs in the Sweet 16 have been very, very solid, posting a record of 15-8-1 against the spread. And six of the eight dogs among last year's final sixteen entrants covered.

So it is hardly a matter of the "cream of the crop" rising in this round. there is obviously room for some upsets, although interestingly enough, when we take a wider view of the way the seeds are laid out, we can see that straight-up success and "getting the money" are not necessarily coincidental.

If we look at things over the last decade, the higher seed has won straight-up on 57 out of 80 (71.3%) occasions, but the lower seed has covered the pointspread to the tune of a 43-32-5 (57.3%) ATS record.

In the Sweet 16 this year, two lower seeds are favorites - Louisville and West Virginia. Rick Pitino, the Louisville coach, has taken three different teams (Providence, Kentucky and Louisville) to the Final Four. And he has a sizzling 34-11 straight-up record in the NCAA tournament.

Between the #7, #8 and #9 seeds in the NCAA's, they have covered seven of their last 10 outings when in the Sweet 16. West Virginia, which is the #7 seed in the West Regional, is the only team fitting that description.

In the Elite Eight round, which will come on Saturday and Sunday, underdogs have been even more successful than they've been in the Sweet 16. Once again, going back over the last decade, dogs have covered 25 out of 38, or 65.8% of games (two games were a consensus pick'em), and almost astonishingly, the favorite only went 21-19 straight-up. That's just 52.5%.

In the last decade of NCAA tournament games, 21 teams who were seeded #10 or below have made it to the Sweet 16, with only six of them advancing to the Elite Eight. And just one of them - George Mason a couple of years ago - has gone to the Final Four. Right now there is a #10 seed (Davidson) still involved, along with #12's Western Kentucky and Villanova. All of them are viable, and arguably should have had a higher seed. Davidson was ranked #25 in the country at the close of the season; Western Kentucky won the Sun Belt, which was a better conference than usual and in fact sent an at-large team to the Big Dance (South Alabama), and Villanova survived in the Big East, probably a close second to the Pac-10 in terms of the nation's best conferences.

And speaking of the Big East, it was no mistake inviting eight of its teams to the tournament. All eight of those Big East schools won its first-round game, and the conference has a 10-6 straight-up record thus far, with twelve covers in those sixteen games. But as for the pointspread, Big East clubs have run into trouble when the Sweet 16 comes around. In the last ten tournaments, the Big East has a 7-16-2 ATS record in this round. That might be bad news for the aforementioned teams from Villanova, Louisville and West Virginia, who are still left standing.

Big Ten teams have had a lot more success in the Sweet 16 in recent years, covering 13 of their last 19 games. And that success has extended to the Elite Eight, with nine covers in the last 13 contests. So maybe that's good news for Wisconsin, who faces the Cinderella story of Davidson, and Michigan State, which goes up against once-beaten Memphis.

Totals have followed a relatively consistent pattern over the last ten years, with 61.5% of games going "under" the total. In a way, this makes sense, because teams at this point might tend to play games closer to the vest. And in this year's Sweet 16, there are several teams that might be considered somewhat "pace-conscious," including Stanford, Wisconsin, UCLA and Washington State. They will be looking to slow down more up-tempo clubs like Texas, Davidson, Western Kentucky and North Carolina.

As for us, we're not looking to slow things down at all. We're full steam ahead!

Don’t forget to check out the BetUS Round of 16 Bracket contest. You could win $10,000.

Go to the BetUS.com online sportsbook today to bet on NCAA basketball. We have the most current NCAA basketball odds and lines, as well as player and game props. Join BetUS.com to experience the best in online sports betting action!

Go to the BetUS.com online sportsbook today to bet on NCAA basketball. We have the most current NCAA basketball odds and lines, as well as player and game props. Join BetUS.com to experience the best in online sports betting action!

(Charles Jay of http://www.eBookies.com gives it the old college try as a regular contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)