Up to NCAA B Articles

posted April 1, 2008 at 16:27 in NCAA B Articles

“UCLA’s D versus Memphis’s O and Can Kansas Exact Revenge on Their Former Coach?”

This is the first time in the history of the NCAA Basketball Tournament that all four number one seeds have made it to the Final Four. After watching the games again, I have to say that there’s a reason for this. All four of these teams - - Kansas, North Carolina, Memphis and UCLA - - make up the most talented Final Four I have ever seen.

Usually, there is one team loaded with talent, like the Oklahoma Sooners in the late 1980’s, and a team with a single superstar, like the Kansas Jayhawks of the late 1980’s who beat that Oklahoma Sooner team. Kansas went into that game with Danny Manning. He was easily the best player on the court that night. Hence, Oklahoma lost and Danny Manning and the Kansas Jayhawks got the upset.

Not this year. The Final Four is chockfull of talented superstars - - on every team. For UCLA there is super-frosh Kevin Love and fleet-footed point-guard Darren Collison. For Memphis there is Chris Douglas-Roberts, Joey Dorsey, and their super-frosh, Derrick Rose. Kansas has both Mario Chalmers and Brandon Rush. Then, there’s North Carolina whose entire team is made up of high-school All-Americans. Not only that but North Carolina has the one player in these Final Fours who might get the John Wooden Award for player of the year - - Tyler Hansbrough.

What about coaching? Okay, well, Roy Williams, the Tar Heels’ coach, has already won a championship. Bill Self, Kansas’s coach, has taken three different teams to the Elite Eight. Ben Howland has taken the UCLA Bruins to the Final Four in three of the past four years. Then there’s John Calipari, Memphis’s coach, who coached a team led by a fella named Marcus Camby in the Final Four around a decade ago. Yeah, these coaches are pretty good too.

What does all of this add up to? Maybe the greatest three games in the Final Four that any fan has ever seen. Oh, yes, there’s a way to make money on these things as well.

We’re going to get into that right now. First, I’ll analyze the two semi-final games. Then, I’ll make a prediction on Monday night’s championship game.

Let’s get to it!

2008 Final Four

Semi-Final Games

Memphis Tigers vs. UCLA Bruins - - BetUS odds Memphis – 2

I have to admit that Memphis proved me wrong. They are the only team that I have watched this tournament and can honestly say has improved. That’s right. Memphis has gotten better. They are shooting their free throws and playing much better defense then they were up to the first game of the NCAA Tournament. Memphis is a dynamite team.

But there is something about these UCLA Bruins that I just can’t shake. They like to play in close games, but hardly ever lose those close games. Also, Memphis got to beat up on Michigan State, who rarely plays a zone defense, and Texas, who doesn’t have the front-court to beat Memphis. UCLA has Kevin Love. Kevin Love can shoot the three which means he should be able to create space in the middle for point-guard Darren Collison. Finally, UCLA has that destiny feeling to them. This is their third trip to the Final Four in the past four years. One of these times, the Bruins are going to bring home the championship. It could very well be this year.

In any case, their defensive pressure should frustrate the usually high-flying Memphis Tigers. Derrick Rose and Chris Douglas-Roberts might start panicking once the last few minutes wind down in this game. That’s when the icy Bruins make their move and bury the Tigers.

NCAA Basketball Free Picks: UCLA Bruins to win straight-up

Kansas Jayhawks vs. North Carolina Tar Heels - - BetUS odds North Carolina – 4.5

I’m not a big fan of this BetUS spread. I absolutely love the Tar Heels, but they’re giving up more than what I thought they’d have to against a Kansas team that showed terrific grit versus a scrappy, superstar led Davidson Wildcats team. I’ve been chilly on Kansas most of the year. I love Brandon Rush and Mario Chalmers, but after that I just don’t feel that Kansas has the necessary ingredients to beat a team like the North Carolina Tar Heels.

The BetUS spread, however, throws everything out of whack. I mean, the Tar Heels should win, but they are giving up more than four points here. Are the Tar Heels actually 4.5 points better than the Kansas Jayhawks? That’s a difficult question to answer. The Tar Heels can play as if they don’t care to be indoors at times. They get lazy and that almost cost them key games this season. Heck, it almost cost them in their last game against the Louisville Cardinals.

But it didn’t. That, of course, is the key. Like UCLA, North Carolina just wins games. They may not blow out teams. They may not look pretty doing it, but they win. I think that this might be one of those games where they win big, actually. Roy Williams will be fired up to prove to his former team that he made the right choice by going to Chapel Hill. Tyler Hansbrough has more heart than any player in college basketball and North Carolina’s defense is better than Kansas’s. North Carolina is just too talented for Kansas.

NCAA Basketball Free Picks: North Carolina to cover the BetUS spread.

2008 NCAA Tournament Championship Prediction

A game between the UCLA Bruins and the North Carolina Tar Heels could go down as a classic. I can’t think of two more evenly matched teams then these two going at it for that goofy trophy that the NCAA gives to the winner.

What the game will come down to is the BetUS point-spread. If, as I believe, the North Carolina Tar Heels will cover in their game versus the Kansas Jayhawks and the UCLA Bruins will beat the Memphis Tigers in a slight upset, then the Tar Heels will be BetUS favorites. The line should be close to what the Tar Heels are giving up to the Kansas Jayhawks - - around 4.5 points. Because UCLA has the history, though, I’m predicting a BetUS line of 3 to 3.5 points in favor of North Carolina.

If it ends up at that, forget about the point-spread and bet the money-line. As good as the Tar Heels are they won’t have an answer for UCLA’s defense. Darren Collison should be able to control the tempo of this game and Tyler Hansbrough will be dumbfounded at how great the frosh, Kevin Love, can play.

Hansbrough will have to work harder on defense than he has all year to contain Love. That spells doom for the Tar Heels on the offensive end. UCLA won’t dominate, but they might win comfortably in this game.

If the championship game ends up UCLA vs. North Carolina, as I predict it will, then my money will be on the Bruins to win straight-up.

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