posted December 26, 2008 at 08:00 EST in NBA Props
NBA Odds - Teams Winning Big on The Over
by Mike Rose
(RANK) (TEAM) (SU RECORD) (O/U RECORD) (O/U RECORD L/5 +$$)
Chicago Bulls (13-14) (14-12 O/U) (5-0 O/U L/5 +$500): The Bulls made NBA bettors that enjoy watching high scoring games very happy this past week by posting a perfect 5-0 ATS mark to the ‘over’. Chicago dropped a tough nba betting battle at Charlotte 110-101 in overtime to start their ‘over’ streak, but bounced back the following night vs. the Clippers, again in OT, but this time came out on top by a 115-109 final count. Boston trounced them in the Garden for the second time this season their next game (126-108), but they rebounded nicely with a solid home win and cover over the Jazz on Saturday night (106-98).
The Bulls shot a shade under 47% from the field and scored an average of 108.6 PPG during the five game stretch, but allowed their opponents to convert at a 46% clip and score an average of 109.4 PPG. Exactly the type of stats ‘over’ bettors look for and their defensive numbers don’t look to get any better with their next five games scheduled against Detroit, Miami, Atlanta, New Jersey, and Orlando. With Chicago big-men Tyrus Thomas and Drew Gooden sidelined for an undetermined amount of time, look for Chicago’s opponents to continue to rack up lofty point totals over the coming week.
Indiana Pacers (10-17) (16-10-1 O/U) (4-1 O/U L/5 +$290): The eighth ranked scoring team in the league had another nice week for NBA ‘over’ bettors by posting a 4-1 O/U mark this past week. After getting trounced in Milwaukee (121-103), the Pacers did some woodshed beating of their own against the Wizards by hanging a 118 spot en route to the easy road win and cover. They followed it up with a hard fought 127-120 home win and cover at Canseco Fieldhouse against the Golden State Warriors, but then tripped up against the Clippers 117-109 in OT the following game. The lone game that failed to go over the closing ‘total’ per the closing BetUS Sportsbook online NBA odds came on Saturday night at Philadelphia where both Danny Granger and Troy Murphy were held out of the game due to flu-like symptoms.
The ‘over’ has cashed at a 62% clip for the Pacers this season, but expect that number to come down once the oddsmakers get a better handle on where to line their ‘totals’. Keep an eye on their injuries for the week ahead with games scheduled to go against more defensive minded clubs.
New Jersey Nets (14-14) (15-13 O/U) (4-1 O/U L/5 +$290): No, a .500 mark isn’t much to be proud of, but the Nets offense has been a joy for NBA bettors to watch so far in ‘08. It currently ranks 10th overall in the league churning out 101 points per game, but the problem area is its defense that currently ranks 26th allowing a shade over 103 PPG. Handicapping the Nets success, or lack there of has been pretty simple to date. If you believe they can surpass their offensive average, the odds are in your favor of cashing an ATS ticket on the Nets and the ‘over’. If not, it’s best to fade Vince Carter and avoid playing the ‘total’
Just take a gander at their L/5 games. They lost to Utah at home 103-92. NJ failed to reach its offensive average, so, they failed to cover the spread and the game went ‘under’. Up next was Dallas where they scored 121 points. You guessed it, they surpassed their offensive average, covered, and the game went way ‘over’. Their defense let them down against Miami in a 106-103 home defeat that just went ‘over’, and then they got trounced by Houston and only scored 91 points but allowed 114 to push the game ‘over’. Finally a 108-107 road win at Indiana saw them cash ATS and cash another ‘over’ ticket. As stated, Nets score more than their offensive average = NJ ATS + over bets. If not, fade or stay away…
