posted October 28, 2008 at 18:58 EST in NBA Props
NBA Futures Betting – Handicapping the NBA Champion
by Charles Jay
Who will win the NBA title? Well, I'm not going to give you a comprehensive NBA preview here; I did that already in one of BetUS's print publications, so you can read it there. What I want to do is talk about some of the teams who will figure in the picture, especially if they've made some changes to get there, with my opinion on who might offer value in this group.
First, the odds to win the NBA title from BetUS Sportsbook
To Win NBA Championship
Atlanta Hawks +8000
Boston Celtics +300
Charlotte Bobcats +10000
Chicago Bulls +3000
Cleveland Cavaliers +1500
Dallas Mavericks +2200
Denver Nuggets +5000
Detroit Pistons +900
Golden State Warriors +10000
Houston Rockets +1000
Indiana Pacers +12500
Los Angeles Clippers +5000
Los Angeles Lakers +325
Memphis Grizzlies +25000
Miami Heat +4000
Milwaukee Bucks +15000
Minnesota Timberwolves +15000
New Jersey Nets +12500
New Orleans Hornets +1000
New York Knicks +10000
Orlando Magic +2200
Philadelphia 76ers +2500
Phoenix Suns +1800
Portland Trail Blazers +3000
Sacramento Kings +20000
San Antonio Spurs +900
Oklahoma City +20000
Toronto Raptors +4000
Utah Jazz +1200
Washington Wizards +4000
I know that all the elements came into place for the Celtics last year, but you also have to remember that the key players on that club, including Ray Allen and Paul Pierce, have gotten a year older. I would mention Allen in particular, because there is a defensive presence to this team that drove it to a title and that sometimes deteriorates with age. Also, this trio managed to get through the season relatively injury-free, and that might not be the case once again, considering that Pierce and Allen have had injuries in their past that have kept them out for extended periods. This actually sounds like my pitch on them from last season, but because they had luck in this area, it makes it, in my mind, more possible this time around.
Garnett was, in my opinion, the MVP last year, because he not only was the anchor of this team, and continued to be the major rebounding force, he had enough presence of mind and unselfishness to sacrifice his scoring numbers. Plus, he provided leadership and created a defensive culture on the team. I trace that completely back to him - not Doc Rivers, not Pierce, not Allen, not any other new arrival. Rajon Rondo will be a better player, but now they lose James Posey, who has been an important part of some championship teams. The bench may not be stronger. And the bench was another big component for them.
Posey moves on to the NEW ORLEANS HORNETS, who blew a lead to San Antonio in last year's Western semi-finals. You got a sense that all New Orleans was missing was the kind of experience in big-time situations. Well, now they have it. When you have Chris Paul you have a pretty good start. And they have the role-players to make things happen their way. Tyson Chandler knows what he has to do, and does it. So does bruising power forward David West. So does small forward Peja Stojakovic. And so does Morris Peterson, who plays second guard and second fiddle. Now Posey has joined up to add bench strength, one area for which you could have put the knock on the Hornets last year. The Hornets are a mentally-tough team, because they did very well on the road last season. If there is a team that can challenge the Lakers for the top spot, it's this one.
And speaking of the LOS ANGELES LAKERS, this is one team where we have no idea how good they can really be, simply because, even with its drive to the NBA Finals, it never put a full contingent of players on the floor. When Andrew Bynum, the very young center who was coming on strong, went down with a knee injury, Pau Gasol was acquired, and Gasol provided a dangerous scoring element to take more pressure off Kobe Bryant. Now Gasol gets to move to power forward, which is more natural for him, and he'll team with Bynum up front. This is potentially huge. And when you add in the possibility that Sun Yue, the new Chinese import, may be as good as advertised, this is a club who won't surprise anyone if they go back to the Finals.
It'll be most interesting to see what goes on with the HOUSTON ROCKETS, now that they have added Ron Artest as a small forward. This is a starting five that, on paper, can rival anyone's; Rafer Alston is, to me, an capable point guard. Luis Scola, who was a top international player, can only get better. Then you have Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady. There was already a question as to how well McGrady and Yao could mesh together, and now you're adding Artest to the mix. This team will be in the running, and they've got some defense to throw at opponents (Shane Battier is another stopper), but I have my doubts about their ability to get to the finish line.
Obviously there are other teams who have the horses to win it, like San Antonio and Detroit (both +900 in the BetUS odds). But it may be torch-passing time for them. As for the teams in last year's Finals, the Celtics are 3/1, and the Lakers are slightly more than that. I think the Hornets have enough ability to surpass either one of them. And while the Rockets, who may have more stars and less chemistry, are sitting at 10/1, that situation can, and probably will, blow up at some point. New Orleans, at the same price (+1000 at BetUS) is more cohesive, and they have the peerless leader, as well the defensive capability to get the job done. That's why I would grab the Hornets as a value play at 10/1.
(Charles Jay of http://www.ebookies.com makes his shots from the top of the key as a regular contributor to the BetUS Locker Room).
