Eastern Conference Final Game 5 – Magic Player Props

The term “must-win” gets thrown around a lot in the playoffs, but this is truly a must-win for the Cavs. Lose and you’re done—win and you’ve got two more must-wins, but you’re breathing. For the Cavs to extend the series they’re going to have to limit Orlando’s firepower from the wings, because there’s not a damn thing they can do about Howard down low. Here we’ll take a look at the player props offered at the BetUS sportsbook on Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu, Orlando’s most prominent wings.

Rashard Lewis Total Points and Assists

The Line:

Rot. Rashard Lewis Total Points+Assists Moneyline

541 Over 22½ Points+Assists -110

542 Under 22½ Points+Assists -120

The Numbers:

Series: 19.3 points + 1.3 assists = 20.6 total

Playoffs: 19.7ppg + 2.8apg = 22.5 total

Regular Season: 17.7ppg + 2.6apg = 20.3 total

Vs. Cleveland (regular season): 15.7ppg +2.7apg = 18.4 total

Away (regular season): 18.9ppg + 2.7apg = 21.6 total

Analysis: In the first couple games of the series LeBron James was primarily defending Rafer Alston. And when I say defending Alston, I mean leaving him and roaming all over the court. In the fourth he would switch to Rashard and do a good job of limiting his scoring (until the last 10 seconds, where Lewis seems unguardable). The Cavs employed the same defensive strategy to start Game 4, but Alston absolutely destroyed the Cavs, draining one open triple after another. He finished with 26 points. The Cavaliers will switch it up tonight and keep LeBron on Rashard while playing Williams straight-up on Alston. That will definitely limit Rashard’s scoring (he hasn’t been doing to much with lesser defenders on him, at least until the end of the game). His assists will go up slightly (expect 3 or so tonight), but he should still be well under 22½ points+assists.

Pick: Rashard Lewis UNDER 22½ Total Points and Assists

Hedo Turkoglu Total Points and Rebounds

The Line:

Rot. Hedo Turkoglu Total Points+Rebounds Moneyline

543 Over 22 Points+Rebounds -115

544 Under 22 Points+Rebounds -115

The Numbers:

Series: 16ppg + 6.3rpg = 22.3 total

Playoffs: 14.6ppg + 4.3rpg = 18.9 total

Regular Season: 16.8ppg + 5.3rpg = 22.1 total

Vs. Cleveland (regular season): 16ppg + 7rpg = 23 total

Away (regular season): 16.5ppg + 5.2rpg = 21.7 total

Analysis: Throughout the entire series Turkoglu has been guarded by Delonte West, in what should be a giant mismatch. West is giving up a good half-foot in height, but Turkoglu hasn’t really been able to take advantage. He’s shooting only 36.5% for the series. Although West’s defense has been good, I don’t see how he could really bother Turkoglu’s shot. I think that Turkoglu’s just been off, and the guy’s a pro, so I don’t see that trend continuing. On top of that, his height advantage gives Turkoglu a chance to pull down a lot of boards. There’s not too many to go around with Howard in, but I still think Turkoglu can put up significant rebound numbers. Basically, Turk’s got a mismatch and I don’t see any reason to believe he’ll be cold, so take the over.

Pick: Hedo Turkoglu OVER 22 Total Points+Rebounds