posted February 18, 2009 at 18:30 EST in NBA Free Picks
Toronto at Cleveland - Is Marion Enough?
by Tim Furious
There’s been a ton of chatter from the Toronto fans about the O’Neal-Marion swap. Was the O’Neal trade a bust in the first place, and is Marian the right fit for the Raptors? To the first question I offer that the intentions with O’Neal from the get-go were 10-10 every night and stay healthy. Mission accomplished, aside from his knee issues.
The second question remains to be answered. Shawn “Matrix” Marion is over-the-hill, but still a quality defender and a good overall player. He’s a certain upgrade over Jamario Moon and as long as Marion can reproduce his 12-8 per game average, than the Raptors moving to a run-and-gun offense might suffice. If anything it will give the fans something to watch. Too bad Sam Mitchell isn’t around, because this is the type of team he can coach. Jay Triano is useless at the pro level. Useless.
The main component of Marion’s skill set that Toronto needs to watch (besides his motivation to play for a contract) is the simple idea that Marion used to be one of the best one-on-one defenders in the league. Melo, Durant, LeBron, Kobe and all the major scorers in the league have dropped 30+ points in games against the Raptors, leaving Bosh dejected and the Raptors NBA betting backers shaking their heads. So what happens when LeBron visits north of the border?
-Cleveland is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
-Cleveland is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
-The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games on the road
-Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
-Toronto is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games
-Toronto is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
-Toronto is 2-4-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home
-Toronto is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games at home
The trends do not like the Raptors tonight, and frankly neither do I. If you think that the Raptors can revert in to a Suns redux team, then you’re mistaken. Bosh is not Amare and Jose Calderon is a huge step down from Steve Nash. It’s not even funny how much parity there is between the Suns 2005-2007 and the current Raptors. Well, it’s funny if you’re moronically and unabashedly hopeful that Toronto can turn it around all of a sudden.
Cleveland has been getting abused in their last 13 games on the road, mostly by big time Western Conference teams. They’ve proven to be one of the best plays at home, but on the road they’re questionable. Can LeBron get around Marion? Will Marion step up and prove to Bosh, the Raptors and Toronto that he can still play? Will Triano get the most out of this lineup? All signs point to a huge, definite and absolute shrugging of the shoulders.
Cleveland Cavaliers (40-11) vs. Toronto Raptors (21-34)
Wednesday, February 18th --- Air Canada Centre, Toronto --- 7:00pm EST
NBA Betting Line: Cleveland -7 (189)
Toronto does not have a viable body to put on Big Z and Marion is the only person athletic enough to keep up with LeBron. Sure, Bosh will do his usual damage but the Cavs are a matchup nightmare for the Raptors. Mo Williams against Ukic and Jose? Are you joking me?
That’s the thing about Toronto – their defense is sickeningly bad. It’s nauseatingly frustrating. It makes you want to vomit with rage when you bet on them and forget that they can’t play defense. “Oh right…I forgot about that part”
All things considered in this game, I would side with the safe bet in the UNDER as Toronto tries to figure itself out and Cleveland remains marred by the trade rumors surrounding Wally Sczerbiak.
NBA Free Pick: Cleveland -7 (UNDER)
