O'Neal Arrives - Miami at Minnesota

The Minnesota Timberwolves (17-35 SU, 24-27-1 ATS, 28-23-1 O/U) have lost – and failed to cover the spread – in five straight games.

The Miami Heat (28-24 SU, 24-26-2 ATS, 27-25 O/U) have managed to win two of its last three, but are just 3-5 over its last eight games overall.

Blossoming shooting guard Randy Foye scored a team-high 23 points for Minnesota in its 111-103 loss to Washington on Tuesday night, a game I correctly predicted in the BetUS Locker Room that same day. Minnesota failed to cover the spread as a 3-point road underdog as the game played over the 203-point O/U total.

The Heat recorded a buzzer-beating 95-93 win over the Chicago Bulls last time out as recently traded forward Shawn Marion slammed home the game-winner with just 1.1 second remaining on Wednesday, covering the spread as 4-point road underdogs while the game's 188 combined points went UNDER the posted total of 196.

Miami got 24 points from Dwyane Wade and 21 points from rookie forward Michael Beasley in the win.

Here is a look at tonight’s key trends, followed by my in-depth analysis and NBA Free Pick.

The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota's last 9 games when playing on the road against Miami

Minnesota is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Miami

Minnesota is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami

Minnesota is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road

Miami is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota

Miami is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against Minnesota

Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota

Miami is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home

NBA Odds

Minnesota Timberwolves +9½ -110

Miami Heat -9½ -110

Over 195 -110

Under 195 -110

Analysis: The Minnesota Timberwolves don’t have many players that can put the ball in the hole on a consistent basis with Al Jefferson out of the lineup while the Miami Heat have been pretty solid at home with its 17-9 SU home mark.

I know the Heat will be working in a new player in veteran low post player Jermaine O’Neal, but I think the Heat has just enough juice to get over the fairly high spread in this contest.

I’m also going to take the Under in this contest as these two teams have not topped tonight’s 195-point O/U total in five consecutive contests.

NBA Free Picks: Miami Heat -9½ Points/Under 195 Total Points