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posted January 13, 2009 at 12:40 EST in NBA Free Picks

NBA Western Conference Showdown - Lakers at Rockets

Bookmark and Share by Charles Jay

BetUS NBA Basketball Betting Odds: L.A. LAKERS -4, Total 194.5

Here are some of the NBA pro basketball sports betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* LA has won nine of its last ten games SU

* LA has lost its last four games ATS

* LA has played five of its last seven games OVER the total

* LA has won five of its last eight road games SU

* LA has covered one of its last seven road games

* LA has played four of its last five road games UNDER the total

* HOU has covered three of its last 11 games

* HOU has played six of its last eight games UNDER the total

* HOU has won nine of its last ten home games SU

* HOU has covered one of its last five home games

* HOU has played four of its last five home games UNDER the total

Also...

* LA has covered seven of the last ten meetings

* HOU has had the rebounding edge in seven of the last nine meetings

* HOU has made more three-pointers in four of the last six meetings

Tracy McGrady, who has been bothered with his knee for quite some time, will rest it once again, taking a couple of weeks off. That provides for a lot of fans, and maybe even for the NBA league office, since McGrady is actually ahead of Chris Paul in the Western Conference voting for the All-Star game. McGrady has already missed eleven of Houston's 39 games, but scored 26 points in his last outing, a 98-96 win over the Thunder four days ago.

In the games McGrady has missed, the Rockets have compiled a 7-4 record, with wins over the Knicks, Celtics, Hawks (twice), Jazz, Grizzlies, Clippers, Warriors, Nuggets, Spurs and Pacers. So it would appear that the team can figure out a way to work around his absence quite well. Houston is in a genuine dog fight in the Southwest Division, just a game and a half behind the San Antonio Spurs.

The Lakers got off to such a fast start, and remain with the best record in the West. In the overall standings, they are six games ahead of both Denver and San Antonio, and eight games ahead of the Suns in the Pacific. We would never go so far as to call that artificial, but keep in mind that the Lakers have played 22 games at home and only 14 on the road. They are 10-4 in those road games, but only 5-3 in their last eight. So no trip, especially one against a quality foe, can be considered a "gimme."

Injuries complicate this analysis, not just on the Rockets' side, but on L.A.'s too. Aside from Luke Walton and Jordan Farmar being out, Sasha Vujacic has back spasms, and did not take the team's charter flight to Texas. Lamar Odom is currently dealing with a knee injury; he doesn't think he can play on it. "It's swollen and it's not stable enough to support a 6-foot-10, 242-pound frame," he says. Phil Jackson thinks he can play. It sounds like Odom will be on the phone to his agent (and Dr. Andrews down there in Alabama).

The Los Angeles bench is going to be thinned out. As someone who doesn't think that bench is as good as advertised to begin with, I would say that spells trouble. We're going with the Rockets, the four-point underdog in the BetUS NBA betting odds.

JAY'S PLAY: HOUSTON +4 ***

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

(Charles Jay makes his share of shots from the top of the key as a contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)

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