posted July 17, 2008 at 13:11 in NBA Free Picks

It was supposed to be a quiet summer on the free-agent front. Instead, the surprise decisions of two players have changed the NBA betting situation for at least four teams.

Point guard Baron Davis and power forward Elton Brand decided to opt out of the final year of their respective contracts, risking big money to enter a rather shallow pool of unrestricted free-agent talent. They chose wisely. Davis went to the Los Angeles Clippers for five years and $65 million; Brand was expected to re-up with Los Angeles after the Davis signing, but chose the Philadelphia 76ers for five years and nearly $80 million.

This was a major signing for the Sixers. Their post-Allen Iverson rebuilding project is ahead of schedule, and at +3500 to win the NBA title, the 76ers have value after going 40-42 (43-36-3 against the spread) and making the playoffs last season. Brand is a consistent 20-point, 10-rebound superstar joining veteran point guard Andre Miller (17 points, seven assists last year), small forward Andre Iguodala (20 points per game, 19.05 Player Efficiency Rating), double-double center Samuel Dalembert and a collection of promising youngsters like sophomore forward Thaddeus Young (16.58 PER).

Brand’s escape from L.A. put a damper on the Davis signing, but the Clippers responded by landing center Marcus Camby from the Denver Nuggets in exchange for the right to swap second-round draft picks in 2010. This was a salary-cap dump for the Nuggets, and it might be enough to knock them out of the playoffs in the Western Conference. They lose steam at +4500 on the NBA odds for the championship; the Clippers suddenly look like a potential deep value pick at +6500, but Davis and Camby don’t have a lot of talent surrounding them.

The fourth team in this free-agent shuffle is the Golden State Warriors, who also sit at +6500 after losing Davis. They did manage to get back at the Clippers by inking small forward Corey Maggette to five years and $50 million, and they also signed restricted free-agent center Ronny Turiaf to a four-year offer sheet at $17 million. It’s considered unlikely the Los Angeles Lakers will match that offer.

Maggette is a prolific scorer (22.1 points per game last year), and Turiaf (15.05 PER) is a prototypical “high energy” player for the Lakers, but neither man fills a pressing need for the Warriors. Point guard Chauncey Billups, on the other hand, would be a coup if Golden State can pull off the rumored trade with the Detroit Pistons. Center Andres Biedrins (19.18 PER) is reported to be Detroit’s target; if the Lakers don’t match the Turiaf offer by Thursday’s deadline, the dominoes could continue tumbling in this crazy summer.

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