posted March 31, 2008 at 17:30 EST in NBA Free Picks

Miami Heat (13-60) vs. Indiana Pacers (30-43)

Monday, March 31st --- Conseco Fieldhouse, Indianapolis --- 7:00pm EST

NBA Betting Line: Indiana -16.5 (197.5)

I’m not exactly sure who’s starting for the Heat these days, but whoever it is they’re doing a half decent job for the Miami Heat betting faithful. The woeful Heat have dropped off the face of the map, going 2-14 SU in their last 16 games. But lately, their 4-1 ATS record over the course of the last five games has a lot of savvy betting investors chirping about these lines. Miami has also gone 5-2 ATS in the past 7 roadies. And they’ve done all this without Wade, J Will, Marion, Haslem, Mourning, Dorell Wright or Pat Riley sitting on the bench. And no, I have no discernable answers as to why they’re covering.

What may have to do with it is that they’re being given spreads like this one. The only reason that Indiana might be getting this huge spread is because Jermaine O’Neal is making his much unanticipated return tonight. Indiana has been doing fine without the unmotivated superstar, going 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games at home. For all his potential, O’Neal was only managing 15.3 points and 7.3 rebounds a game before he went down. But it’s his blocks that will keep this game in the UNDER.

The Pacers are in an underwhelming race for one of the final spots in the Eastern Conference playoffs, and the chance to get swept by either the Celtics or the Pistons in the first round. Danny Granger has 19.0 points per game and is becoming as good as advertised. He’s a great two way player with a fine understanding of the game. O’Neal’s time away from the hardwood has give Granger the time to evolve as “the man” in the Pacers offensive gameplan. And Granger gets crispier with every touch he gets.

Yet, despite their need to play playoff caliber basketball, the Pacers have allowed 113.4 points per game over their past 5. So the UNDER is not safe in this game. On top of that, a team that can’t play defense will have a ton of trouble trying to play against a bunch of NBA upstarts trying to prove that they belong in the league. I’m not even going to try and figure out who’s on the roster, but all you need to know is that the Heat have been able to put up points on bad defenses. And the Pacers have seemingly forgotten how to stop opponents from lighting up the board.

NBA Furious Free Picks: Miami +16.5 (OVER)

You’ll find the latest 2007-2008 NBA odds and lines in the best online sportsbook, BetUS.com. Betting on NBA player and game props makes every aspect of the game exciting. Join BetUS.com today to bet on the NBA and make online sports betting work for you!