posted November 20, 2009 at 18:21 EST in NBA Free Picks
NBA Expert Picks – Sacramento Kings vs. Dallas Mavericks
NBA Expert Picks – Mavericks Look to Avoid Loss to Kings in ‘Trap Game’
Kings (+11) at Mavericks (-11)
(O/U) 203
Tonight at 8:30 PM ET
The Dallas Mavericks (9-3 SU, 9-3 ATS, 5-7 O/U) have won and covered the NBA point spread in four straight games and six of seven overall.
The surprising Sacramento Kings (5-5 SU, 6-4 ATS, 5-4-1 O/U) haven’t exactly been chopped liver as they’ve won and covered the spread in four of their last five overall.
The veteran-laden Mavericks will try to avoid an SU and ATS loss to the Kings when they square off at American Airlines Center tonight at 8:30 PM ET.
- Kings are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- Kings are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. Western Conference.
- Mavericks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Pacific.
- Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
- Home team is 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
- Favorite is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
- Kings are 1-3-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
- Over is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Dallas.
>> Join now to bet on the Kings vs Mavericks -11
411 on the Kings
Sacramento had its four-game SU and ATS winning streak snapped in its 101-87 loss to Chicago on Tuesday night. Donte Greene scored a team-high 24 points for Sacramento but the Kings were undisciplined in committing 21 turnovers in the loss. The Kings failed to cover the NBA point spread as 2.5-point home favorites in the loss.
411 on the Mavericks
Dirk Nowitzki torched the San Antonio Spurs for a game-high 41 points as the Mavericks beat their longtime Western Conference rivals 99-94 on Wednesday to cover the NBA points spread as 3-point home favorites just as I predicted that day. Nowitzki added 12 rebounds to finish with a double-double while Drew Gooden added a double-double with 17 points and 11 rebounds.
Analysis: I really like the way the Kings have played this season under veteran head coach Paul Westphal, but I think they’re going down and going down pretty hard in this contest to a streaking Mavericks team that is just starting to scratch its full potential.
The Mavericks are full loaded with a deep, veteran-laden roster while the Kings have a gifted, but totally green rookie point guard in Tyreke Evans.
The key trends tell the story for this contest as the Mavericks have gone a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games against NBA Pacific ballclubs and 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.
Yes bettors, the Kings are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss but Sacramento has also struggled to beat the Mavericks historically, going an uninspiring 1-3-1 ATS in the last five games against Dallas.
With the home team going a consistent 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings, I say play the Mavs to cover with a bit of room to spare.
