posted November 1, 2007 at 12:49 in NBA Free Picks

The Phoenix Suns get to start their season versus the hapless Seattle Supersonics.  The Sonics, who were thoroughly embarrassed by the Denver Nuggets last night, not only get to play their first home game, but they get to play their first back-to-back of the season?

The Suns?  Their opening is tonight and there is no reason they shouldn’t absolutely dominate the Sonics in this one.  But, there’s a catch which I will explain to all of you later in this article.

First, a few trends to keep in mind:

The Supersonics are 3 – 8 – 1 against the spread in their last 12 home games.

The UNDER is 10 -3 in the last 13 meetings between the Suns and Supersonics.

The UNDER trend in particular is worrisome because an under game, when it comes to the Phoenix Suns, usually means the Suns do not cover.  The Suns in this case are giving away 10.5 points and that means that they not only have to run out to a huge lead, but that they have to keep their starters out on the court in the middle of the fourths quarter in order to keep up the blow-out pace.

That may or may not happen.  The quandary for the Suns in this game is this:  if they keep out their starters until the fourth quarter they will only do so if it is a close game.  Or, if they pull their starters in the fourth quarter, then the Supersonics have a good chance of getting the number under 10.5.

Either way the BetUS line of the Phoenix Suns – 10.5 against the spread on the road versus the Seattle Supersonics is a tough line to bet if you want to wager on the Suns.

No doubt that the Suns are a much better team than the Supersonics, but the Supersonics have a game under their belts, are playing at home, and Suns have some pressing injury issues.

For one, Leandro Barbosa, who spells Steve “Old Man” Nash, probably won’t play at all in this game.  For another, Amare Stoudemire may rest his knees in this one.

Why not?  Since Suns’ coach Mike D’Antoni knows that he can win this game with his second-stringers against a young Sonics’ line-up, there really is no reason to hurt his starters.

Expect the Suns to race to a huge lead in this one, D’Antoni to pull his starters, and then the Sonics to make a run in the fourth quarter.

Because of that, I’m backing the Sonics and taking the 10.5 BetUS points.

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