posted November 25, 2009 at 19:05 EST in NBA Free Picks
NBA Betting Odds - Dallas Mavericks vs. Houston Rockets (-3.5)
Mavericks (+3½) vs. Rockets (-3½)
(O/U) 201½
November 25, 8:30 PM ET
The Dallas Mavericks (10-3 SU, 9-4 ATS, 6-7 O/U) have done a fantastic job of keeping their fine start going despite suffering a slew of injuries recently that have decimated the ballclub.
However, the team took a big loss on Wednesday I saw coming a mile away.
Houston (8-6 SU, 9-5 ATS, 9-5 O/U) has been one of the surprise teams in the league so far this season despite losing its best player this offseason and having another one of their most important players out of the lineup since the midway point of last season.
Tonight, the two Western Conference ballclubs will both be looking to pick up a victory when they battle at the Toyota Center at 8:30 PM ET.
The Mavericks had their season-high, five-game winning streak snapped on Tuesday, losing to the Golden State Warriors 111-103 while failing to cover the NBA point spread as 13-point home favorites.
Dirk Nowitzki scored a team-high 28 points and pulled down 10 boards in the loss but it wasn’t enough as Monta Ellis scored 37 points for the Warriors, who shot a scorching 47.6 percent from three-point distance. Dallas has also failed to cover the ATS spread in two straight games, following a four-game ATS winning streak.
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The Rockets have alternated wins and losses in a mind-boggling 11 consecutive games, but managed to beat the competitive Sacramento Kings 113-106 on Saturday.
Houston failed to cover the NBA point spread as an 11-point home favorite in the loss, getting a double-double of 22 points and 12 rebounds from Luis Scola in the loss. The Rockets have covered the ATS spread in six of their last 10 games overall.
Key ATS Trends
- Mavericks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games.
- Rockets are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games.
- Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Houston.
- Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Houston.
- Mavericks are 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings.
- Underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
Analysis: Dallas has won two straight and three of four against Houston, but I like the Rockets to keep their ‘win-one, lose-one’ SU streak going by narrowly beating the undermanned Mavericks in this contest tonight.
The key trends for this game strongly suggest a Mavericks NBA point spread cover, but I’m going with the Houston Rockets to pull out the narrow win and cover simply because Dallas is short-handed an likely tired following Tuesday’s run and gun loss to Golden State.
The Rockets have gone a very nice 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games and I’m taking them to improve on that number in this contest tonight.
