posted December 1, 2008 at 17:58 in NBA Free Picks
NBA Betting - Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors
by Charles Jay

The Miami Heat (8-9 SU, 8-8-1 ATS) has lost two out of three games on its road trip, and on Monday night the team will try to get back to the .500 mark against the Golden State Warriors (5-12 SU, 7-10 ATS), who allowed an awful lot of points in their last game, in NBA pro basketball sports betting action that is slated to get underway at 10:30 PM ET at the Oracle Arena in Oakland, CA.
BetUS NBA Basketball Sports Betting Odds: MIAMI -1.5, Total 216
Here are some of the NBA pro basketball sports betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
* MIA has lost four of its last six games SU
* MIA has played five of its last six games OVER the total
* MIA has lost 15 of its last 18 road games SU
* MIA has played 10 of its last 15 road games UNDER the total
* GS has covered one of its last six games
* GS has lost its last six games SU
* GS has played eight of its last ten games OVER the total
* GS has covered one of its last five home games
Also...
* MIA has covered 12 of the last 17 meetings
* MIA has won 16 of the last 22 meetings SU
* Four of the last five meetings have gone OVER the total
* MIA has covered four of the last five meetings as the road team
* MIA has had the shooting edge in seven of the last nine meetings
* MIA has had the rebounding edge in seven of the last nine meetings
Miami got banged around pretty good by Portland last Wednesday night, shooting 34.5% and getting drubbed by a 106-68 score in what was its worst performance of the season. The Heat followed that game with perhaps its best performance, beating the Suns by 15 points in Phoenix, leading the entire game. Of course, the Suns were playing without Steve Nash in that one. And Saturday night, Miami lost a disappointing one-point decision to the Clippers at the Staples Center.
Golden State, however, is not showing any dense at all. The Warriors are allowing opponents to shoot better than 46% from the field, not to mention 109 points a contest, which is the highest figure in the NBA. And now wonder, when you have added players like Corey Maggette, and now Jamal Crawford, to the roster. One of the problems as well is that Don Nelson has never created a defensive culture around his team. the results lately have borne that out - Golden State has yielded more than 123 points a game over the last four.
Though he has six players averaging double figures, Nelson does not have an acknowledged point guard at the helm. Monta Davis, who is far from a natural at that position, was supposed to take over those reins, but he's been serving a suspension. Andris Biedrins, who is averaging over 12 rebounds and 54% shooting, has been slumping, with just 25 boards and 43% shooting in his last three. Stephon Jackson has been bothered with a sprained wrist.
Chris Duhon had 22 assists for the Knicks the other night in Madison Square Garden, in a 138-125 New York win. None of this is good news as Miami comes in with Mario Chalmers chalking up a 4-to-1 assist-turnover ratio in his last four outings, and of course Dwayne Wade (28.2 ppg), who few people can cover to begin with.
We're going to lay the points with Miami, the 1.5-point favorite in the BetUS NBA pro basketball sports betting odds.
JAY'S PLAY: MIAMI -1.5 ***
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)
(Charles Jay of http://www.ebookies.com makes his share of shots from downtown as a contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)


