posted March 18, 2008 at 17:22 in NBA Free Picks

Golden State Warriors (- 3) vs. Sacramento Kings (+ 3)

Tip-off: 10:05 pm est.

With Pau Gasol hurt in Lakerland, and the once mighty San Antonio Spurs suddenly looking very human, there is a window of opportunity for the Golden State Warriors to put themselves into a much better playoff position. The Warriors have lost only 24 games this season straight-up. Against the BetUS spread it’s a different story as Golden State has gone 27 and 38 overall this season and 16 and 16 on the road. The Warriors’ helter-skelter style has produced quite a few wins recently as the Warriors have gone 8 and 2 straight-up in their last 10 games. This isn’t the case against the BetUS spread as a 5 and 5 record in their last 10 points to a problem covering.

Sacramento won’t make the playoffs this season. They are 6 games below .500. Against the BetUS spread they are actually pretty good for a straight-up losing team going 34-31-1 this season. In their last ten games the Kings have gone 4 and 6 against the BetUS spread. Here are more trends.

The Golden State Warriors are 11-5 against the spread in their last 16 games as a favorite on the road.

The Golden State Warriors are 4 and 12 against the spread in their last 16 games as the favorite.

The Sacramento Kings are 6 and 0 in their last 6 games as an underdog of between .5 to 4.5 points.

The Over is 10 and 1 in the Golden State Warriors last 11 games on the road.

The Under is 7 and 1 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams in Sacramento.

There are some conflicting trends regarding the BetUS over/under. Since the BetUS over/under is 230.5, I sort of feel that the under is the way to go in this game. 230.5 equates to roughly 116 points from each team. I don’t see that happening. Golden State could blow the Kings out of the building. Or, the Kings could keep it close.

So, the under looks like the bet in this game. These two teams are too close to one another for me to pick a winner against the spread. If I had to choose, I’d probably put some money on the BetUS money-line of Sacramento Kings + 115. The Kings play so well at home, and so well versus the Warriors, that the chances of them winning this straight-up isn’t too bad.

But that under looks very nice. The last time these two teams met the Kings lost to the Warriors by 3 points 105 to 102. That wouldn’t sniff this over/under.

The BetUS over/under in the Golden State vs. Sacramento game tonight is 230.5.

I love the under in this game.

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