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posted January 7, 2009 at 15:40 in NBA Free Picks

NBA Betting Free Pick - Indiana @ Phoenix

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BetUS NBA Basketball Betting Odds: PHOENIX -10, Total 226.5

Here are some of the NBA pro basketball sports betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* IND has covered two of its last seven games

* IND has lost five of its last seven games SU

* IND has played six of its last seven games OVER the total

* IND has lost 14 of its last 19 road games SU

* IND has played five of its last seven road games OVER the total

* PHX has covered two of its last eight games

* PHX has won four of its last five games SU

* PHX has played 12 of its last 16 games OVER the total

* PHX has covered one of its last five home games

* PHX has won six of its last seven home games SU

* PHX has played six of its last nine home games OVER the total

Also...

* PHX has covered five of the last seven meetings

* PHX has won the last seven meetings SU

* Five of the last seven meetings have gone OVER the total

* PHX has covered seven of the last nine meetings as the home team

* PHX has won eight of the last nine meetings SU as the home team

* Eight of the last 11 meetings in Phoenix have gone OVER the total

* PHX has had the shooting edge in six of the last seven meetings

* IND has had the rebounding edge in four of the last six meetings

* PHX has made more three-pointers in five of the last seven meetings

These teams met back on November 5 at the Conseco Fieldhouse. In that game, Amare Stoudamire went wild, scoring 49 points on 17 for 21 shooting, with eleven rebounds in a 113-103 Suns victory. Stoudamire's Phoenix teammates were 46% from the field as well. Two of Indiana's starters from that game may be unavailable here, as Marquise Daniels is suffering from a strained left groin and T.J. Ford has an abdominal injury. Both of them are classified as "day-to-day," which would put more pressure on Danny Granger, the 6'9" forward who is averaging 25.5 points a game. Jarrett Jack has gotten increased playing time at point guard for Indiana, and he brings more shooting and scoring to the table than Ford, but that also thins the Pacers' bench.

Phoenix has won four of five, and the only loss in that stretch was by one point against San Antonio. The Suns have been a little choppier than that against the number, covering just four of their last 15 games. The last game they played was five days ago against the L.A. Clippers (a 106-98 win/non-cover), which means they are well-rested, and that is obviously good news for Shaquille O'Neal, who is creaky enough to where Phoenix generally sits him out of back-to-back situations. Steve Nash, who flourished under Mike D'Antoni's old regime, may have bellyached a little about the way the Suns had to slow down the pace to accommodate O'Neal, but the fact of the matter is that Shaq is second in the NBA in field goal percentage and is doing better than expected. In the first meeting with Indiana, he played only 12 minutes and scored three points. Look for him to be much more active here.

Phoenix has covered only five of its last 15 as a home favorite, so laying big numbers with them is kind of risky. Indiana, however, doesn't play defense, which makes it very difficult against this Suns squad that is 50% from the field, leading the NBA. There is a particular void in defending underneath, which Stoudamire will exploit again, aided by O'Neal. To stretch that Pacer defense out, Phoenix has the league's most accurate three-point shooter as well in Jason Richardson (52.6%), and the DUI arrest from a couple of weeks ago doesn't affect his ability to play here.

Indiana has given up 252 points in the last two games. They are made to order for the Suns. We'll lay the points with Phoenix, the 10-point favorite in the BetUS Sportsbook NBA pro basketball betting odds.

JAY'S PLAY: PHOENIX -10 **

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

(Charles Jay makes his share of shots from the top of the key as a contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)

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