posted March 27, 2008 at 17:15 EST in NBA Free Picks

WHO: Portland Trail Blazers (38-34 SU, 36-35 ATS) at Golden State Warriors (43-27 SU, 30-40 ATS)

WHERE: Oracle Arena, Oakland, CA

WHEN: Thursday, March 27 at 10:30 PM ET

BetUS NBA basketball betting odds: Golden State -10, Total 209.5

In the HEAD-to-HEAD NBA betting trends:

* PORT has covered four of the last five meetings

* GS has won nine of the last 12 meetings

* Nine of the last 11 meetings have gone UNDER the total

* GS has covered four of the last five meetings as the home team

* GS has won the last five meetings SU as the home team

* Five of the last six meetings in Oakland have gone UNDER the total

* PORT has had the shooting edge in four of the last five meetings

* PORT has had the rebounding edge in four of the last six meetings

Portland allows 98 points a game on the road, which is seventh in the NBA. The Blazers pull down 40.4 rebounds per game. Also:

* PORT has won four of its last six games SU

* PORT has covered two of its last six games

* PORT has lost 11 of its last 16 road games SU

* PORT has played five of its last eight games UNDER the total

Golden State is the NBA's highest-scoring team, averaging 113 points a game at home and 111 points overall. The Warriors knock down 9.4 three-point shots per contest and shoot 46.2% from the field. Also:

* GS has covered two of its last seven games

* GS has won 10 of its last 15 games SU

* GS has played four of its last six games UNDER the total

* GS has covered one of its last five home games

* GS has won nine of its last 12 home games SU

Portland has actually done pretty well against Golden State this season, winning two meetings at the Rose Garden by margins of 10 and 18 points, and losing by six at the Oracle Arena on March 2. To give you an idea of how competitive the Western Conference is, Golden State, at 16 games above .500, is barely holding onto the eighth and final playoff spot, while Portland, which came of age with a 14-game winning streak earlier in the season, is almost hopelessly out of the running.

That doesn't mean the Blazers can't make progress, it's just that the progress is sometimes set back by injuries. Brandon Roy, who is suffering from a groin injury, will sit this contest out and may not be ready before the season ends. LaMarcus Aldridge is going to be a game-time decision with an ankle injury. Our guess is that Aldridge, who has been averaging 24 points on 57% shooting in a nine-game period prior to him getting hurt against Seattle, will play. But Portland's depth has come in handy this season; last time they played the Warriors they did manage to get 44 points off the bench.

On the technical side, Portland has covered seven of its last 10 road games, but perhaps more importantly, Golden State has been overpriced at the Oracle on a regular basis, covering just eight of 29 as a home favorite.

We're going to grab the points with Portland, the ten-point underdog in the BetUS NBA betting odds.

JAY'S PLAY: PORTLAND

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(Charles Jay of http://www.eBookies.com is a freelance writer and handicapper who not only can make his shots from the top of the key, but also contributes with gusto to the BetUS Locker Room)