posted May 2, 2008 at 19:38 EST in NBA Free Picks

NBA Western Conference Semifinals

NEW ORLEANS HORNETS (56-26 SU, 50-31-1- ATS) vs. SAN ANTONIO SPURS (56-26 SU, 38-44 ATS)

BetUS NBA Basketball Betting Odds

SPURS VS HORNETS - When will the series end?

Game 4 +700

Game 5 +275

Game 6 +175

Game 7 +175

SPURS VS HORNETS - Correct Series Result

Spurs Win 4 - 0 +1400

Spurs Win 4 - 1 +700

Spurs Win 4 - 2 +350

Spurs Win 4 - 3 +500

Hornets Win 4 - 0 +1600

Hornets Win 4 - 1 +550

Hornets Win 4 - 2 +600

Hornets Win 4 - 3 +325

The Hornets romped to a five-game victory over the Dallas Mavericks, which was surprising to a lot of people. Everybody knew Chris Paul was an outstanding player, and in fact a legitimate MVP candidate by virtue of his leading New Orleans to the second best record in the Western Conference. But with 24.6 ppg, twelve assists per contest, and his relentless on-court leadership, Paul dominated over his counterpart, Jason Kidd, who may not have ultimately been the right fit at the right time for Dallas. Kidd's former coach at New Jersey, Byron Scott, has won the league's coach of the year award, and in the past took the Nets to a couple of appearances in the NBA Finals. With a playoff record of 29-15, Scott is no stranger to bringing his team to heights they weren't supposed to reach.

Paul has an excellent frontcourt duo to feed the ball to. David West (20.6 ppg) is an unsung power forward who made it to the NBA All-Star game this season, and Tyson Chandler, who concentrates more on defense and rebounding, has arguably had a couple of All-Star caliber seasons in a row. One of the keys for the Hornets is going to be the play of Peja Stojakovic, who averaged only eleven against the Spurs this season. And he's going to have his hands full with Bruce Bowen, a perennial member of the NBA's All-Defensive team.

While the last series may have been a picnic for Paul, that is not likely to be the case against Tony Parker, who went on a big roll for San Antonio in the five-game win over Phoenix in the first round. Parker knocked down 29.6 points a game, and shot 50% from beyond the three-point arc. His 52% shooting in the series was consistent with his season average of 49%. Tim Duncan showed against the Suns that he is still very potent, averaging almost 25 points and 14 rebounds while dealing with a new, improved, reinforced Phoenix front that this time around featured Amare Stoudamire and Shaquille O'Neal.

What San Antonio brings to the table that is unique is the contribution of Manu Ginobili (19.5 ppg), who provides an element that New Orleans can neither match nor supply a good answer for. There is a lot of lip service given to "sixth men" and the value of depth, but Ginobili is someone who actually upgrades the offense to a considerable degree when he comes off the bench. And unlike most of the other playoff teams, San Antonio can go nine deep int he playoffs and maintain some strength; Brent Barry is back in action after having missed most of the season, and Robert Horry, the 6'10" forward who can go outside or inside, has not only won seven championship rings, he has actually had a key role in winning most of those rings in the post-season.

And speaking of the post-season - the Spurs had some ups and downs during the regular schedule, as they have had in previous seasons, but this is most certainly a team reminiscent of some of the great Celtic clubs of the past, in that when the light goes on in the playoffs, they know how to respond. The objective this season is to win back-to-back championships, something they have yet to do.

We don't want to take anything away from what New Orleans was able to do against Dallas, but the fact is they were facing a team that was in the midst of a collapse and a little bit of internal strife, all of which led to the firing of coach Avery Johnson. One of the things you have to understand is that you have a team that has won four NBA titles in the last nine years against a club that has won just four playoff series in its history - and the last one prior to the Dallas series was in 2002. There is a significance to that, illustrative of San Antonio's big edge in experience at this level of combat.

Let's also remember at the same time that New Orleans is a mentally-tough crew, and Paul, the quarterback, did anything but choke in his initial foray into the playoff waters. New Orleans was one of the best road teams in the NBA this season, compiling records of 26-15 SU and 24-16-1 against the number. I'm expecting close games, and perhaps a couple of covers for the Hornets in the AT&T Center. I don't expect that West is going to shoot 95% front he free throw line again, but I do think New Orleans is perfectly capable of capturing two games in the series. They have a more deliberate style, more suited to the half-court game (i.e., playoff basketball) than Phoenix had. And in Chandler, there is a more active defensive presence than the Suns had with O'Neal. Ultimately though, this thing will turn on experience, and let's not lose sight of the fact that everything was bunched up pretty tightly in the Western Conference this year, so you don't want to dwell on the fact the fact that New Orleans finished ahead of the Spurs in the standings. In terms of "money games," the Spurs are light years ahead of them, and in fact, ahead of just about everybody.

JAY'S PLAYS:

SPURS WIN 4 - 2 (+350)

SERIES ENDS IN GAME 6 (+175)

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(Charles Jay of http://www.eBookies.com is a freelance writer and handicapper who not only can make his shots from the top of the key, but also contributes with gusto to the BetUS Locker Room)