posted March 27, 2008 at 16:53 in NBA Free Picks

Dallas Mavericks (+ 9) vs. Denver Nuggets (- 9)

Tip-off: 8:05 pm est.

The Mavericks, who almost covered the BetUS spread versus the Los Angeles Clippers in their last game (they missed it by half a point), travel to Denver to take on a Nuggets team that has started to surge late in the NBA season. In their last 10 games the Nuggets have gone 8 and 2 against the BetUS spread. They are a very good 22 and 13 against the BetUS spread at home.

The Mavericks have gone 0 and 4 against the BetUS spread in their last 4 games. Of course, the almost cover versus the Clippers was a good sign as it was their first game without Dirk Nowitzki. Then again, it’s different playing against the Clippers without Dirk and then having to play the Nuggets without Dirk. Here are some trends.

The Denver Nuggets are 12 and 1 against the spread in their last 13 games as a favorite of between 5 and 10.5 points.

The Denver Nuggets are 5 and 0 against the spread in their last 5 games at home.

The Under is 11 and 4 in the last 15 meetings between these two teams.

The Denver Nuggets are 8 and 2 against the spread in their last 10 games on a Thursday night.

The problem with handicapping this game is that the Mavericks’ 13 point win against the Clippers the other night gave us very few clues as to how Avery Johnson will coach this team now that Dirk is on the bench. Erik Dampier had a double-double in that game, racking up 19 points and 17 rebounds. That’s pretty impressive, but to expect Dampier to do that again is asking a lot.

Josh Howard picked up the slack for the Mavs in their first game post-Dirk by tossing in 32 points and grabbing 7 boards. Jerry Stackhouse, who started in place of Jason Terry, added 20 points.

The problem, of course, is that the Mavs were playing the Clippers. Denver is a very different team. It will be much harder for Dampier to score against super defender Marcus Camby. Carmelo Anthony is a much better scorer than anybody on the Clippers’ squad and Allen Iverson can go tit-for-tat with both Jason Kidd and Jerry Stackhouse.

That means that tonight is the real test as to whether or not the Mavs have any chance of making the playoffs. Denver has to win this game. They are two games behind the Mavs and have been hot lately. I expect that they will come out fired up and ready to take it to Dallas.

I see a blow-out.

The BetUS NBA Betting line is Denver Nuggets – 9 against the spread at home versus the Dallas Mavericks.

My money will be on the Nuggets to cover that spread.

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