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posted January 5, 2009 at 14:00 EST in NBA Free Picks

NBA Action Golden State Warriors at Utah Jazz

Bookmark and Share by Charles Jay

BetUS NBA Basketball Betting Odds: UTAH -11.5, Total 219.5

Here are some of the NBA pro basketball sports betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* GS has covered four of its last 13 games

* GS has lost 19 of its last 24 games SU

* GS has covered one of its last five road games

* GS has lost its last five road games SU

* UTAH has covered six of its last nine games

* UTAH has lost four of its last six games SU

* UTAH has played five of its last seven games OVER the total

* UTAH has won and covered four of its last five home games

* UTAH has played six of its last seven home games UNDER the total

Also...

* UTAH has won and covered the last five meetings

* Six of the last nine meetings have gone OVER the total

* UTAH is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings as the home team

* UTAH has won the last five meetings SU as the home team

* Four of the last five meetings in Salt Lake City have gone OVER the total

* UTAH has had the shooting edge in each of the last five meetings

* UTAH has had the rebounding edge in each of the last ten meetings

* GS has made more three-pointers in each of the last ten meetings

Utah is going to have to deal with the absence of Carlos Boozer, who's had a knee problem that will require surgery, but they've already been doing that since November 19, when he went down with the injury. Paul Millsap has filled in ably for him, though he was also missing for a few games with a sprained knee ligament, but Millsap is back in the starting lineup, returning three days ago with 17 rebounds against the Lakers, albeit in defeat. Deron Williams is devoting himself to taking more of a part in the offense, as he has taken between 16 and 18 shots in each of the last seven games. Without Boozer, Utah's shooting percentage is obviously down from last season, although the team is still hitting 47% of its attempts.

No one should be surprised if that percentage goes up against the Warriors, who are one of the NBA's worst defensive clubs, surrendering 47% from the field themselves, as well as 111.3 points per game.

Sure, Golden State can put the ball in the basket, but Jamal Crawford has not had a hot hand, shooting just 9 for 31 in his last three games. he has been coming off a groin injury. Corey Maggette, who was averaging 19 points a game, is out with a strained right hamstring. Monta Ellis, who was going to be handed the point guard job, had off-season ankle surgery and was also serving a suspension, will not play until later this month. So the Warriors are actually more bothered by their injuries than Utah is.

The Jazz has pounded this team over the last five meetings, covering all of them, winning all of them by double digits and holding shooting and rebounding edges in each of them. Golden State couldn't compete on the inside with Boozer, and with a minus-8 rebounding margin on the road, it is likely that they won't do it with Millsap either. Even though the Jazz has not been as dominant at home as it was last year, Jerry Sloan's team is still 12-4 at the EnergySolutions Arena this season, covering ten of those games. We'll lay the points with the Jazz, the 11.5-point favorite in the BetUS Sportsbook NBA pro basketball betting odds.

JAY'S PLAY:  UTAH -11.5 **

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

(Charles Jay makes his share of shots from downtown as a contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)

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