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posted November 11, 2009 at 16:31 EST in NBA Free Picks

Back to Where it All Started – Shaq’s Back in Orlando

Bookmark and Share by Eric Williams

Cleveland (+2) at Orlando (-2)

(O/U) 191
Tonight 8:00 PM ET

The Cleveland Cavaliers (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS, 1-6 O/U) garnered all sorts of attention this offseason for adding super-sized center Shaquille O’Neal to their roster in an effort to reach and win the NBA Championship this season.

Cleveland even entered this season as the odds-on-favorite to win the Eastern Conference despite the fact that they were handed an emphatic six-game smackdown by the Orlando Magic (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS, 4-3 O/U) in last season’s Conference Finals, which, by the way, they were also favored to win.

Now, the two rivals will square off in a rematch of their Conference Finals series tonight at Amway Arena at 8 PM ET.

The Cavaliers at a glance

I advised NBA betting enthusiasts and pro basketball diehards prior to this season that Cleveland’s addition of an aging O’Neal wouldn’t make any difference to a Cavaliers team still lacking in talent and depth and so far, my assessment was dead-on correct.

Cleveland has gotten off to a slow star and the addition of O’Neal has been lackluster at best no matter what the Cavs and head coach Mike Brown say publicly.

The Cavaliers say they brought in Shaq to combat Orlando center Dwight Howard in the low post after losing to the Magic in last year’s playoffs, but I told NBA fanatics everywhere that it was Orlando’s multiple all-star quality perimeter players that was the key to their victory and that hasn’t changed at all.

Despite their few roster tweaks this offseason, Cleveland has struggled with inconsistency this season as superstar forward LeBron James has been forced into his customary, do-it-all role for the Cavaliers while averaging 26.5 points per game to go along with 7.7 rebounds and 8.0 assists per night. The Cavs have just two other players averaging double figures in scoring with Mo Williams putting up 15.7 points per contest and O’Neal averaging 11.1 per night.

The Magic at a glance

The Magic have had to deal with injury issues recently, but are arguably the deepest team in the league and will likely be better off in the long run for having to start and play normal substitutes J.J. Redick and Matt Barnes big minutes over the last several games.

Orlando is ranked 12th in scoring this season (102.4) and haven’t even had all-star forward Rashard Lewis available as he sits out the first 10 games due to a league-mandated drug suspension. The Magic have been solid on defense as well throughout the early going despite its injury issues, ranking 11th in points allowed (97.2)

Keys to a Cavaliers Victory

Cleveland has got to put the ball in the hole better and more efficiently than they have all season as they are ranked an uninspiring 22nd in scoring while shooting just 44.9 percent from the field (18th).

If this game turns out to be another matchup of five-one-one like last season’s conference finals series where James had to put up a whopping 38.5 points per game just to give his team a chance to win, this game will go like each of Cleveland’s four series losses to Orlando.

If Mo Williams can top the 20-point plateau and O’Neal can approach 15 or 16 points, Cleveland will have a shot.

Keys To an Orlando Victory

Stop LeBron from going wild while getting double figure scoring from five players. Stopping James is easier said than done, but Orlando has an excellent player that is very capable of making him work hard for everything he gets in veteran swingman Mickael Pietrus.

If the Magic can spread the floor with their perimeter shooting and then take advantaged of Dwight Howard’s quickness advantage over O’Neal or Zydrunas Ilgauskas, the Magic win with room to spare.

Head-to-Head Trends

  • Home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
  • Cavaliers are 0-6 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Orlando.
  • Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
  • Over is 13-6-1 in the last 20 meetings in Orlando.

Analysis: I don’t think there’s much of a doubt that Orlando and its fans will be up for this highly-anticipated rematch contest, which is exactly why I like the Magic to win and cover tonight.

Just looking at the first two head-to-head trends tells me all I need to know, not to mention the fact Orlando is still the deeper and better overall team.

I’ll keep this pick short and sweet by simply saying that the Magic win and cover the NBA point spread against the Cavaliers, fueled by their crazed fans and finished off by their deeper ballclub.

Take the Magic to win and cover the spread in this NBA Lock Alert pro basketball betting members

 NBA Free Picks: Orlando -2 Points

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