posted January 7, 2009 at 16:15 EST in NBA Betting Trends
NBA 'Over' Betting - Who's Hot
by Mike Rose

(RANK) (TEAM) (SU RECORD) (O/U RECORD) (O/U RECORD L/5 +$$)
1) Denver Nuggets (24-12) (21-15 O/U) (5-0 O/U L/5 +$500): The Nuggets became one of the better defensive teams in the NBA when Chauncey Billups first came over from Detroit, but head coach George Karl’s club has reverted to the norm and got back to playing in high scoring games where defense is taken very lightly. NBA bettors have seen the ‘over’ cash in Denver’s L/7 overall, and it boasts winning marks both home (11-6 O/U) and away (10-9 O/U) in that department. That’s what happens when you line up the 4th ranked offensive attack and 20th ranked defense on any given night. That said; look for the Nuggs offensive output to take a hit over the next month with All Star F Carmelo Anthony riding the pine after recently breaking his hand against Indiana.
2) Indiana Pacers (12-22) (22-11-1 O/U) (4-1 O/U L/5 +$290): If the Pacers aren’t outscoring you, they aren’t winning. Just take a look at their SU and O/U records; they’re almost identical. Twenty-two over’s to go along with 22 losses. Hmmmm, I wonder if there’s a correlation there?! Anyway, the Pacers boast one of the top five offensive attacks averaging upwards of 103 points per game, but the defense can’t stop anyone currently ranking 28th in the league surrendering a shade under 106 PPG. When you add it all up, you got an offensive juggernaut lacking on the defensive end of the court just looking to outscore you every game. NBA oddsmakers will continue to get beat in this area as long as Danny Granger and company continue to take this mindset. Until then, keep hitting the over whenever this club laces ‘em up as it’s a $$$-making 11-2 O/U in Indiana’s L/13 games.
3) Golden State Warriors (10-26) (21-15 O/U) (4-1 O/U L/5 +$290): After a 1-4 mark to the ‘under’ in its previous five games, the Warriors got back into the good graces of ‘over’ bettors by surpassing the closing total in four of their five sports betting contests last week. The Warriors hit the 100-point plateau in all five games and surpassed the 110 point mark on three occasions. The high point totals didn’t translate into many wins, just one, but Golden State isn’t on this week’s list for winning games either SU or ATS. Head coach Don Nelson’s club looks to finally be meshing with one another after the big trade that saw a number of new faces come in, which means plenty of scoring is still on the horizon. We might see the highest posted point total of the season when they welcome the Indiana Pacers in on January 11th.
4) Atlanta Hawks (22-11) (13-18-2 O/U) (4-1 O/U L/5 +$290): After seeing the under cash in 10 of their previous 11 contests, the Hawks averaged 10 points more than their season average (98.2) to allow the ‘over’ to cash in four of their last five. They started off the week hammering both Denver and Chicago before outlasting the Pacers at Indiana. Their next game went into OT against New Jersey, but ended up being the only game not to surpass the closing ‘total’; even with an extra session. The weeks festivities closed with a home win over the Rockets that also surpassed the closing ‘total’. Atlanta is by no means an ‘over’ team due to its top 10 ranked defense, but has shown an ability to go on over spurts when its offense is on a tear. Look for the scoring to come back to reality with a pair of games against division rival Orlando on deck before hosting the Sixers to close out the week.



