posted March 4, 2008 at 13:51 EST in NBA Betting Trends

Seattle Sonics (16-43) vs. Detroit Pistons (43-16)

Tuesday, March 4th --- Palace of Auburn Hills, Detroit --- 7:30pm EST

NBA Betting Line: Detroit -14.5 (194.5)

The Sonics are well on their way to winning the lottery this season, which is fine by me as long as the NBA manages to keep them in Seattle. To think that the Sonics might actually leave Seattle for a city like Kansas City or freakin’ Oklahoma City is unimaginable. The only thing more surprising for Seattle lately is their ability to cover the spread.

Seattle has gone 2-13 SU in their last 15 gameson the road, which is a big reason why the Vegas oddsmakers have pinned them as double-digit dogs away from Microsoft City. But during the last five away games, the Sonics have gone 5-0 ATS. Their last victory over the Minnesota Timberwolves saw them shoot 55.0 percent from the field.

Detroit may be 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games, while going 14-3 SU in their past 17, but Chauncey Billups is still out of action with personal issues. If he remains out, that will definitely hurt the chances of Detroit covering the spread. That’s a huge spread to cover, especially if your lethal point guard isn’t in the mix. Detroit averages 98.3 points per game on the offensive end, while boasting the number-one defense in the league with 90.2 points against on average

Kevin Durant has 19.4 points and 4.1 rebounds per game, and is right on schedule with his progress. The Swingman from our nation’s capital has been producing steadily over the past five games, leading his team in points throughout. Chris Wilcox has chipped in with 13.1 points of this own, not to mention 7.1 rebounds. But the man to keep your eye on here is Nick Collison. He’s only started in 21 games this season, but has 9.6 points and 8.8 rebounds. Seattle, if anything, is a strong rebounding team averaging 33.4 defensive boards and 12.0 offensive boards. Both numbers are higher than Detroit’s rebounding stats. That means a lot of second chances for Seattle and missed opportunities for Detroit.

I’m not brazen enough to declare an upset of the well oiled Pistons tonight, but the Sonics are becoming a team that are difficult to bet against with these massive spreads. What’s even more surprising is that the line is moving up. Take advantage of this spread before it comes back down. I like the Sonics with any 13.5+ point spread tonight, if only because they are becoming a team that has efficient perimeter shooting. As a team they are 44.1 percent from the field. And if the victory over Minnesota is any indication, that number is about to start climbing.

NBA Betting Free Pick: Seattle +14.5 (OVER)

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