posted June 4, 2008 at 18:27 in NBA Articles

WHAT: Game 1 of the NBA Finals

WHO: Los Angeles Lakers (57-25 SU, 47-34-1 ATS) at Boston Celtics (66-16 SU, 52-28-2 ATS)

WHERE: TD Banknorth Garden in Boston

WHEN: Thursday, June 5 at 9:05 PM ET

BetUS NBA basketball betting NBA Finals odds: Celtics Odds -2.5, Total 192; Money Line: Boston -145, L.A. Lakers Odds +125

Here are some of the NBA basketball betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* LA is 12-4-1 ATS in its last 17 games

* LA has won six of its last seven games SU

* LA has played four of its last five games UNDER the total

* LA has won and covered 17 of its last 24 road games

* LA has played six of its last eight road games UNDER the total

* BOS has covered three of its last 11 games

* BOS has won five of its last seven games SU

* BOS has played four of its last six games UNDER the total

* BOS has covered 12 of its last 17 home games

* BOS has won 16 of its last 17 home games SU

* BOS has played four of its last five home games OVER the total

In the HEAD-to-HEAD NBA Finals betting trends:

* LA has covered seven of the last ten meetings

* Seventeen of the last 23 meetings have gone OVER the total

* LA has covered five of the last six meetings as the road team

* Ten of the last 14 meetings in Boston have gone OVER the total

The loss in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference finals was Boston's only defeat at home in seventeen games. That having been said, this seems to be a line with some value in it. The Celtics have held opponents to 87.9 points per game when in their own building. During the playoffs, that number has been cut to 83.5, although admittedly there is some concern that the Pistons were able to ring up totals of 103 and 102 points in Games two and five, respectively. That is the Lakers' mission - to pump up the pace and turn it into the kind of game they like.

Los Angeles will have to hit shots from the outside in order to win, and I think that is going to be the case for much of this series. The Celtics probably can't stop Kobe Bryant cold, but they can at least turn him into a jump shooter, much like they were able to do with LeBron James, especially early on in the series with the Cavaliers. They'll give him those outside shots, and count on Kevin Garnett to help clog the middle when he tries to attack the hoop.

Garnett is a key here, on both ends of the court. I see his value greater as a defender, however. Keep in mind that Garnett was not just a first-team All-Defensive selection; he was the defensive player of the year. When the Celtics are on offense, he does not have to be the guy who carries the load, because of the presence of Paul Pierce and Ray Allen alongside him. In that regard he is different than Bryant, who as far as I'm concerned, has to have the ball in order to be effective (I'm not drinking the Kool-Aid about his sudden epiphany toward sharing the ball).

Maybe it's just me, but I think people are undervaluing the Celtics here. They have defense working for them, not to mention what I think is a better bench. They're my choice in this series, and though I'm sure I will side with the Lakers in individual games, depending on the situation, this is a situation that belongs to the Celtics. We will lay the 2.5 points with Boston in the BetUS NBA Finals betting odds.

JAY'S PLAY: BOSTON (-2.5)

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(Charles Jay of http://www.eBookies.com is a freelance writer and handicapper who not only can make his shots from the top of the key, but also contributes with gusto to the BetUS Locker Room)