posted February 25, 2008 at 18:55 EST in NBA Betting Trends

Atlanta Hawks (23-31) vs. San Antonio Spurs (37-17)

Monday, February 25th --- AT&T Center, San Antonio --- 8:30pm EST

NBA Betting Line: San Antonio -12 (186.5)

The Hawks are 1-7 SU in their past 8 games, and are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games. So why am I writing about this game? Because they are a different team with Mike Bibby at the point, and you have to give Bibby some time to adjust to his new team. Certainly San Antonio is a powerhouse and the team to beat this year, but I love the way the Hawks matchup against them.

First off, with Bibby running the show, they are a lot more dangerous. In just four games, Bibby is averaging 14.3 points per game and 5.5 assists. Finding a way to utilize the raw talent of big Al Horford will be priority one for Bibby. Horford has just 9.1 points per game and 9.8 rebounds, but my leading candidate for ROY is brimming with potential. And what better way to prove yourself than against Tim Duncan? Yes it’s a tall order, but if Big Baby of the C’s could handle him, what’s to say that Horford can’t?

I’m not saying that Horford is going to shut Duncan out of the game. But what I am saying is that Atlanta is a team of hot hands. Josh Smith, Joe Johnson and Bibby can go red-hot at any given time, nailing impossible perimeter rainbows. Johnson leads the team with 20.5 points per game. Smith is doing everything he can to make this team better, averaging 17.7 points per game, 7.9 rebounds and 3.8 assists. He is becoming better by the minute this season.

Still, Manu Ginobli has been one of the most amazing players of the past few weeks. And trust me. I hated having to write that sentence. But the Argentina acrobat is averaging 34.4 points per game. After missing an entire month of action, Manu has Tony Parker back. Parker notched 30 playing minutes of playing time on Saturday night and looks to be fully healthy. And he’ll have to be if he hopes of playing well against Mike Bibby.

The Spurs are 20-5 SU in their past 25 games at home, and are 4-1 ATS in their past 5 games. The Hawks have been grounded lately, but something about this spread has me tingling. Atlanta has been getting crushed against the Spurs, but with Bibby running the point, maybe I’m dumb enough to believe they can run with the best team in the league. They match up fairly well against San Antonio, and will have to rely on their hot hands searing in field goals to keep the score even remotely close.

But with such a steep betting line, that hasn’t moved since it opened, it seems that the betting community is either staying away from this game, or they too believe that Atlanta has the fire power to keep up with a double-digit handicap. If you’re feeling frisky, take the points on the Hawks. If you want a sure thing, however, bet on the money line with the Spurs.

NBA Free Picks: Atlanta +12 (OVER)

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