posted July 1, 2008 at 14:16 in NBA Betting Trends

The NBA betting order wasn’t changed by last week’s draft. The free-agency period might be a different story.

Tuesday marks the first day the NBA’s latest crop of unrestricted free agents gets to test the marketplace; July 8 is the first day they can officially sign a contract with a new employer. It’s a thin crop compared to years past; many players (like Shawn Marion of the Miami Heat) chose not to opt out of their existing contracts, and only a small handful of teams can afford to sign big-name talent at this point.

Lesser names, on the other hand, are well within reach. One of those names is James Posey, whose defensive effort and timely 3-point shots helped the Boston Celtics defeat the Los Angeles Lakers in the NBA Finals. The Celtics were favored at press time to defend their championship at +275, edging ahead of the Lakers at +300. But Posey might not be around – he’s a strong candidate to land a multi-year deal at the full midlevel exception, which was $5.36 million per annum in 2006-07. It will be closer to $6 million this year.

Any of the league’s 30 teams can sign a player to the midlevel, so Posey is going to be in high demand. He’s hardly the most important member of the Celtics, but from a sports betting standpoint, Boston loses value the moment Posey puts pen to paper for another club. Eddie House, P.J. Brown and Sam Cassell are also up for grabs; Tony Allen could join them as a “UFA” if Boston decides not to make a qualifying offer, leaving no point guards behind starter Rajon Rondo.

The Lakers don’t have any UFA worries beyond rarely used DJ Mbenga and Ira Newble. Ronny Turiaf and Sasha Vujacic have completed their original rookie contracts, but they’re both restricted free agents and are very likely to be wearing the Purple and Gold again this season. Los Angeles supporters are confident that the return to full health of Andrew Bynum and Trevor Ariza will be enough to push the Lakers over the top and earn coach Phil Jackson that elusive 10th championship ring.

Gilbert Arenas is unrestricted; however, he is expected to re-sign with the Washington Wizards as Antawn Jamison recently did. Other UFAs of note this week include Matt Barnes and Mickael Pietrus from Golden State, Miami’s Jason Williams and Beno Udrih of the Kings. Udrih should land the midlevel as a competent starting point guard, but the NBA odds won’t move much if he signs with a team like the Los Angeles Clippers (+12000 to win the title).

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