posted March 27, 2008 at 16:57 EST in NBA Betting Trends

Dallas Mavericks (45-26) @ Denver Nuggets (43-28)

The Dallas Mavericks have yet to beat a team above .500 since acquiring Jason Kidd. That streak might continue on Thursday night as the Mavericks head to Denver, who are looking to gain ground on the Mavericks in the playoff hunt.

Dallas will be without Dirk Nowitzki for roughly two weeks, which figures to drop them down in the standings.

The Nuggets are 10-3 ATS in March and 30-14 ATS in this month over the last three seasons. They are also 29-19 ATS as a favorite.

Dallas is 2-4 when the total is set at 210 on higher and typically don’t play well against high scoring teams. They are 9-18 ATS this season against teams that average 99 points or more per game.

NBA Free Picks: Denver

Miami Heat (13-58) @ Detroit Pistons (50-21)

The Miami Heat are the biggest underdog of the season tonight and given the way that they have performed of late, it is easy to understand why.

Since 1996, the Heat have been an underdog of 18.5 or more twice and have failed to cover both times. The Pistons have been favored by 12.5 or more 31 times since 1996. Although their straight up record is 28-3, their ATS record is 14-17.

In the matchups over the last three seasons, the Pistons are 6-1 straight up but the Heat have dominated the spread, going 5-2 in those games.

The Pistons have a tendency of taking their foot off the gas when they are a big favorite.

NBA Free Picks: Miami

Portland Trail Blazers (38-34) @ Golden State Warriors (43-27)

The Golden State Warriors have been alternating wins and losses in their last five games but the good news is that they get to face a team that they have dominated recently.

They are 4-0 against the Trail Blazers at home over the last three years.

Interestingly enough, though, the Warriors are only 3-11 ATS against the Northwest Division this year and are just 9-14 ATS in the second half of the season.

Portland, who won as a home dog to Washington in their last game, is 12-2 ATS after an upset win as an underdog. They have been an underdog of 9.5 to 12 points three times this season and have covered twice. Meanwhile, the Warriors have only covered three out of eight times when favored by the same margin.

NBA Free Picks: Portland

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