posted May 23, 2008 at 16:23 EST in NBA Free Picks
WHAT: Game 2 of the Western Conference Championship Series
WHO: San Antonio Spurs (56-26 SU, 38-44 ATS) at Los Angeles Lakers (47-34-1 ATS) -- regular-season records
WHERE: Staples Center in Los Angeles
WHEN: Friday, May 23 at 9 PM ET
BetUS NBA basketball betting odds: L.A. Lakers -6.5, Total 193
Here are some of the NBA online sports betting trends, relative to this matchup:
* SA has covered five of its last six games
* SA has won four of its last six games SU
* SA has played five straight games UNDER the total
* SA has covered two of its last six road games
* SA has played four of its last six road games UNDER the total
* LA has won 13 of its last 15 games SU
* LA has covered one of its last five games
* LA has played four of its last six games OVER the total
In the HEAD-to-HEAD online NBA betting trends:
* LA has own five of the last eight meetings SU
* SA has covered four of the last five meetings
* LA has covered three of the last five meetings as the home team
* Five of the last seven meetings have gone UNDER the total
* Four of the last six meetings in Los Angeles have gone UNDER the total
* LA has had the shooting edge in five of the last seven meetings
* LA has had the rebounding edge in four of the last five meetings
* SA has made more three-pointers in seven of the last eight meetings
There is no other way to look at Wednesday night's opening game than as a downer for San Antonio. You cannot have a 20-point second half lead and blow it and not be affected in some way. It is true that the Spurs had some problems with their aircraft and had to sleep on the plane, essentially marooned in New Orleans without hotel rooms, and that they did not practice on Tuesday. And in fact, Laker coach Phil Jackson, at the post-game press conference, suggested that fatigue was a factor in the Spurs' collapse.
That may be true, but the bottom line is that this team choked. It had a road win in the palm of its hand, and blew it. They quit playing. In the first half of the first game, Kobe Bryant was held to three points and the Spurs' defensive game plan was working exactly the way it was meant to. But Bryant took things over in the fourth quarter, scoring 14 points and leading the improbably comeback win.
Okay, look - if we are sitting around in a bar, or if we're jawing with a Gen-X'er on talk radio, the anthem is that there are no excuses for the defeat. But we are in the handicapping business, and whether something sounds like an "excuse" or not, when there is money on the line - yours - you have to take into account ALL the factors that went into why something happened, whether it sounds like an excuse or not. The fact is that San Antonio looked tired in the second half, and it could probably be traced to those travel irregularities, which can upset a preparation schedule.
The question is whether a loss like the Spurs suffered will have a big carryover effect into this second game. There are indeed teams who can be so crushed emotionally; so shocked, that they could be done for good after blowing that big a lead in a loss. But if there is one team who can overcome something like that, I would say it's the team that has won four titles in the last nine years, and which came back from two games down against a very energetic New Orleans team in the previous round.
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And by the way, i do not agree with Charles Barkley of TNT (who's probably wagered on a few games himself), who mentioned rather matter-of-factly that the Lakers have a better bench than the Spurs. If San Antonio wants, it can bring a 20-point scorer off the bench (Manu Ginobili) or a multiple All-Star (Michael Finely), whichever one they decided not to start, not to mention a dependable three-point shooter, an underrated veteran (Ime Udoka), a former rookie of the year (Damon Stoudamire), and a center who can bang around a little bit (either Kurt Thomas or Fabricio Oberto). That is better than the Lakers have to offer, and that will show itself as this series progresses. It ain't over, believe me. And remember - the Spurs still covered last night - their fifth cover in the last six games.
We'll grab what we think is a generous pointspread with the Spurs, the 6.5-point underdog in the BetUS NBA playoff basketball betting odds.
JAY'S PLAY: SAN ANTONIO (+6.5)
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(Charles Jay of http://www.eBookies.com is a freelance writer and handicapper who not only can make his shots from the top of the key, but also contributes with gusto to the BetUS Locker Room)




