posted March 27, 2008 at 14:35 EST in NBA Betting Trends

Portland Trailblazers (+ 11.5) vs. Golden State Warriors (- 11.5)

Tip-off: 10:35 pm est.

The Golden State Warriors are only 12 and 23 against the BetUS spread in their home games this season. In their last 10 games the Warriors have gone 5 and 5 against the BetUS spread. Those aren’t outstanding numbers. The Warriors should make the playoffs, but they are a very up and down team.

Like the Warriors, the Portland Trailblazers have gone 5 and 5 against the BetUS spread in their last 10 games. Unlike the Warriors, the Blazers probably won’t make the playoffs. Against the BetUS spread on the road, the Blazers have gone 19 and 18 this season which is actually pretty good. Here are more trends.

The Portland Trailblazers are 7 and 3 against the spread in their last 10 games on the road.

The Golden State Warriors are 9 and 4 against the spread in their last 13 games on a Thursday night.

The Golden State Warriors are 2 and 7 against the spread in their last 9 games overall.

The Favorite is 8 and 3 against the spread in the last 11 meetings between these two teams.

The Under is 9 and 2 in the last 11 meetings between these two teams.

As expected the BetUS over/under is a big number, 208 points. I do like the under in this game, but I’m not sold on it.

The reason is simple. The Blazers will be without Brandon Roy and LeMarcus Aldridge. As much as I hate to take the Golden State Warriors against anybody in the NBA betting, this is especially true when I have to give up points, the fact that Portland will be without Roy and Aldridge is nothing to laugh at.

Brandon Roy is one of the top ten players in the NBA. LeMarcus Aldridge is turning into one of the top power forwards in the NBA. Without either one of those guys, the chances of Portland putting up a lot of points, much less keeping pace with the Warriors, aren’t very good.

I have to take the Warriors in this game. Yes, 11.5 is a lot of points to give up, but if the Warriors are going to cover a huge spread this week, this is probably the one.

The BetUS NBA Betting line is Golden State Warriors – 11.5 against the spread at home versus the Portland Trailblazers.

I’m betting the Warriors to cover.

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