Sprint Cup Picks from Watkins Glen - Smoke and Jimmy will be in the mix

NASCAR: Will Watkins Glen Be Kyle Busch’s Return to the Winner’s Circle?

Race-day: 8/9/2009

Race-time: 1:00 pm EST.

NASCAR returns to a road course and the usual suspects are present. Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon and Juan Pablo Montoya are all short priced favorites in the BetUS online sportsbook.

Smoke is the actual favorite at +450. Another favorite, at +600, is Kyle Busch who hasn’t really done much on the track since a victory at Richmond on May 2nd. Busch is in desperate need of something, anything, good to happen so that he can climb back into the Chase.

Let’s take a look at some of the contenders to win at Watkins Glen.

NASCAR: Watkins Glen To Win

1. Tony Stewart +450 - - Smoke’s average finish at Watkin’s Glen is 5.7. He has 4 victories, 6 top fives and 8 top tens. He’s also driving as well in 2009 as he has in a while. This is Tony’s race to lose.

2. Jimmie Johnson +2000 - - Yes, I know, Jimmie has virtually no chance of winning this race, right? Jimmie may never have won on a road course, but he was darn good the last time he drove on one at Sonoma in June. He finished 4th in that race. Who’s to say he doesn’t come up big at Watkins glen?

3. Juan Pablo Montoya +600 - - No wins at Watkins Glen but he knows road courses well and he’s been driving about as well as any driver in NASCAR save for Tony Stewart. Juan Pablo finished 2nd last week. He could finish first this week.

4. Jeff Gordon +600 - - Jeff finished 8th last week in the Pennsylvania 500 and will be looking to do something better at Watkins Glen. If history is any indication, he could do it as he has won four times at Watkins Glen.

5. Marcose Ambrose +700 - - Ambrose, like Montoya and Stewart, is a road course specialist. Then again, he hasn’t exactly been lighting things up on the road courses. He’s been good enough to do some good things, like finishing 3rd on average, but he still hasn’t tasted victory.

6. Kyle Busch +600 - - Busch has a better shot to win this than some gamblers believe. Kyle has been awful lately, true, but he’s a seriously good driver and his crew will fix the issues that they’ve been having. Kyle’s too talented to not get back on track. It’s been almost three months since his last victory. He can repeat at Watkins Glen.

Best Long Shot

Kasey Kahne +3000 - - I’m not sure why Kasey, who has been brilliant on the track lately, is going off at 30 to 1 in the sportsbook. Kahne won at Sonoma and has been a top 10 staple pretty much ever since. He’s a big overlay in this.