posted July 13, 2007 at 16:27 EST in NASCAR Free Picks

Following last week's Nextel Cup race at Daytona International Speedway, the series roars into the Windy City on Sunday for the USG Sheetrock 400 on the 1.5-mile, doglegged oval of Chicagoland Speedway.

The so-called "cookie-cutter" track lacks originality in its configuration, but it makes up for it in predictability, which is crucial to the NASCAR sports betting community.

Jimmie Johnson has been the "cookie-cutter" king ever since he joined the circuit. In 48 previous starts on this type of track, Johnson has collected ten victories, 25 top-5's and 37 top-10's compared to just five results outside the top 25.

Four of his poor finishes came as the result of either an accident or engine failure, which suggests that if he stays out of trouble, he's virtually guaranteed a strong finish.

He finished sixth in this event last season, which was the only time in six starts he has finished out of the top five at this track.

Tony Stewart might be a riskier selection considering his inconsistency this year, but he can't be ignored. He's won three of the last nine "cookie-cutter" races.

This season, he nearly won at Atlanta, which is similarly configured to Chicagoland. Last year, Stewart fell victim to fuel mileage gremlins in this event. He had a top-5 capable car, before running out of gas with the checkers in sight.

In 2007, Jeff Gordon has been practically perfect in regards to top-15 finishes and his only poor result came at Lowe's in the Coca-Cola 600. In that race, however, he was running in the top five when he was crashed by a car trying desperately to get a lap back.

Even with that 41st-place finish factored into the equation, he has an average finish of 6.4 in the 2007 season so far.

Gordon leads the point standings and is on pace to capture his fifth career title, while leading the series in poles (6), top-5 finishes (12) and top-10's (16). He won this race last year and has finished in the top-5 four times in six races at Chicagoland.

Johnson, Stewart and Gordon have combined to win six of the last nine races on the similarly configured, 1.5-mile tracks. Sunday's USG Sheetrock 400 Selection:

Jimmie Johnson +450 To win outright.

Year to date record following the Pepsi 400: -$1390

A running total of records will be provided throughout the season graded on $100 (units) wagers. So buckle up and enjoy the ride all year long.

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