posted November 10, 2006 at 13:24 EST in NASCAR Free Picks

The Chase for the Cup has been, by all accounts, a roaring success for NASCAR. But the format has its detractors, and all they need to do is point at the odds list for Sunday’s Checker Auto Parts 500.

The futures market has really tightened up as the penultimate race of the Nextel Cup season draws near. The favorite all week has been the hottest driver on the circuit: Tony Stewart, the defending Cup champion who failed to qualify for this year’s Chase. Stewart is pegged at +400 to win his third race in a row; despite his inability to finish any higher than 11th in the drivers’ standings, Stewart is determined to finish the season with a bang.

He’ll have some company. Kevin Harvick has gotten enough support from bettors this week to climb to co-favorite status at +400. He’s attempting the season sweep at Phoenix International Raceway, having won April’s Subway Fresh 500 ahead of Stewart. But Harvick has even more motivation than Stewart – he’s in fifth place in the standings, 105 points behind Jimmie Johnson and still in the hunt for his first Nextel Cup. Harvick is also looking to stick it to the competition after his wife DeLana was knocked down in last Sunday’s altercation with a member of Scott Riggs’ Evernham Motorsports crew following the Dickies 500.

Speaking of significant others, Jeff Gordon (+700) is newly married and looking to pick up a checkered flag to go with the requisite bath towels and kitchen appliances. Gordon has put together a history of consistent finishes at Phoenix, finishing outside the Top 10 just three times in 15 appearances. However, the four-time Cup champion has never won on this mile-long track.

Dale Earnhardt Jr, on the other hand, won this week’s event in 2003 and 2004. That’s enough to put “Little E” near the top of the odds list at +600. A third career win at Phoenix could be enough to leave Earnhardt in excellent shape to pick up his first-ever Cup; he’s in third place in the standings, 78 points behind Johnson.

The current Chase leader would probably have to hit the wall or succumb to mechanical failure for Earnhardt to capitalize. Johnson (+500) placed seventh at each of his past two races at Phoenix, and he’s riding a streak of four consecutive Top-2 finishes into Sunday’s event. But it’s not exactly clear sailing for Johnson. He has to fight off Matt Kenseth (+900), who sits just 17 points out of first place and could easily move back into the lead, especially if he can improve on April’s third-place result at the Subway Fresh 500.