NASCAR Crown Royal 400 - Picking the Winner

Race-day:  5/2/2009
Race-time:  7:00 pm est.

Talladega last week turned out to be a long, strange trip for most NASCAR drivers.  Brad Keselowski won the race after Carl Edwards’s attempt to block him ended up costing Edwards the victory. 

It was a crazy end to a crazy day as Carl Edwards, Kyle Busch, Tony Stewart, Denny Hamlin, Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon all finished out of the top twenty.  Those types of results aren’t expected on Saturday as Stewart, Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr., who finished second at Talladega last week, are all looking for their fourth victory at Richmond under the lights this Saturday.

Let’s take a look at the top contenders for this Saturday’s Crown Royal 400.

NASCAR:  Crown Royal 400 To Win

1. Jimmie Johnson +450 - - Jimmie’s terrible finish at Talladega was just part of the overall luck of the race…for everybody.  He’s still the champ and his three wins at Richmond makes him tied with Dale Jr. and Smoke for the winner’s lead.  He should bounce back in a huge way in this and the odds are actually nice on Jimmie.  The second ranked driver in the NASCAR Power Rankings (link to NASCAR Power Rankings article), should be tough at Richmond. 

2. Tony Stewart +700 - - What’s funny about Tony’s 23rd place finish at Talladega last Sunday is that he started out 29th.  So, I suppose Smoke improved.  That’s the positive spin on the race.  Of course, Smoke’s also won three times at Richmond which means he could be in line for another victory at nice odds.

3. Dale Earnhardt Jr. +2000 - - 20 to 1 are excellent odds on a three time winner of a race who just finished second the week before.  This is the second week in a row that Jr. has made my top six.  I’m not sure what’s going on with me.  Strange weather here in L.A., but he deserves to make the list because he has history on this track and he finished the best at Talladega out of the contenders last Sunday.

4. Jeff Gordon +800 - - Gordon has two victories at Richmond.  On the other side of that coin is the fact that his 37th place finish at Talladega was awful.  But it didn’t just happen.  The early race crash with Matt Kenseth was a huge reason for the finish and if anybody bounces back, it will be Gordon who is ranked 2nd in the Sprint Cup point’s standings behind…

5. Kurt Busch +800 - - Busch only has one victory at Richmond but his 6th place finish at Talladega put him into the lead in the Sprint Cup point’s standings.  Busch is just driving better than he has in a while and his crew is making a lot of the right calls which means he’s competitive each week.

6. Kyle Busch +600 - - No wins at Richmond but he’s been very close in recent races at Richmond and like everyone else on this list, with the exception of big brother Kurt and Jr., should bounce back from a terrible Talladega.  Kyle’s go the goods to get it done this Saturday night, but, like always, the odds are low.

Best Long Shots

Greg Biffle +2000 - - Biffle garnered his first top ten finish at Talladega, he had never finished better than 25th at that track, last Sunday when crossing the line 7th.  He’s a definite player in this even though he’s never won at Richmond because he’s driving well.