posted April 16, 2009 at 12:30 EST in NASCAR Free Picks
NASCAR Betting - Subway Fresh Fit 500 Selections
by Robby Maddux
On Saturday, the desert night sky will be illuminated and cactus will rattle, as 43 rumbling stockcars make their way around the 1-mile Phoenix International Raceway in the Subway Fresh Fit 500. Following an off week, the online NASCAR betting community is geared up for the action's return, as it resumes under the lights which adds something special to any race. The only thing that could make this event better is a money-making race winning selection, if you bet on NASCAR. So let's have a look around the garage and see if we can turn a profit on race 8-of-36, which starts at 8:40pm EST on FOX.
After burying his sports betting investors in 47 consecutive races, Jeff Gordon finally found Victory Lane, ending the longest winless streak of his career at Texas in the circuit's most recent outing. The victory earned him ten bonus Chase points and expanded his lead in the standings over second-place teammate Jimmie Johnson by 162 points, despite Johnson gaining two positions in the standings with a strong runner-up outing in Texas. The Hendrick duo's success hasn't went un-noticed by oddsmakers, who are giving them a ton of respect to win the Subway Fresh Fit 500.
Johnson won this race last year and BetUS NASCAR odds favor him to successfully defend his title, priced at +350. Gordon will start the race potentially as oddsmakers second co-favorite at +600, status currently shared with Kyle Busch. Carl Edwards and Denny Hamlin both sit at +800, which rounds out the top-five NASCAR wagering favorites to take the checkers on Saturday.
Johnson has won the last three Cup races at Phoenix, including both events there in 2008. The three-peat defending champion has six top-fives and nine top-10 finishes in eleven starts at the desert venue, making it clear why he's the odds on favorite. In addition to that, Johnson owns a series-best dynamic 5.5 average of finish at Phoenix.
He's certainly the man to beat on paper, but I don't see him making it four straight there. And, there's better value to be found on drivers more than capable of winning, including Gordon who's finished outside the top-ten in the first seven races of 2009 only once. There's no more doubt about Gordon catching up with the new Hendrick COT program, as it was apparent he didn't have a feel for the new car last season when the COT made its full season debut.
Gordon has just one career Phoenix victory, 8 top-five finishes and 15 top-tens, including a strong 10.2 average of finish and three poles. With Gordon having the winless monkey off his back, the media will have to find a new topic to write about. This takes pressure off Gordon and negative media focus off the four-time champion, allowing him to build on his 82 career wins without being under a microscope.
Another quality the No. 24 team features that will be a key factor, is a savvy driver with ability to adapt with patience. Phoenix International Raceway is one of the most unique tracks on the circuits. Drivers must be able to conquer two completely different sets of corners that have different shapes and degrees of banking. Even the front-stretch and back-stretch have different amounts of banking, calling for driver adaptation according to a car's handling.
As well, the transfer from day light racing to night will generate a huge difference in track temperature, which in turn demands major adjustments to a car's setup. That's were Gordon's patience will payoff, as he'll calmly find a way to keep himself in contention if his car becomes ill-handling when the track changes, while crew chief Steve Letarte makes the calls to find the winning combination between car and track with one of the sport's greats behind the wheel.
I'm investing in Gordon to collect his 83rd victory and backing my wager with a top-three finish, just incase Johnson pulls off what's an unlikely feat.
Free NASCAR Picks: Jeff Gordon +600 (Win) and +180 (Top-3)



