posted November 14, 2007 at 17:20 EST in NASCAR Free Picks

The last race in the Cup Chase and believe it or not, me, not realizing it earlier, just thought about how Jeff Gordon owns the Lowe # 48 car which, of course, Jimmie Johnson drives.

Jimmie Johnson is about 80 points ahead of Gordon in the Cup Chase. Now, I’m not saying that there’s a conspiracy because I know how much Gordo likes to win, but if you think that Jeff is going to do anything, anything at all, to jeopardize Johnson’s chances of winning the Cup this weekend, then you are out of your mind.

Jimmie Johnson will be the Nextel Cup winner this year because he is going to play it safe and just get his car into the top ten. Johnson virtually has to finish 18th or worse, and Gordon has to win, for Johnson to lose the Cup.

That won’t happen. It really won’t happen if the guy who wants you most to win is the dude who’s chasing you. Again, no conspiracy. Gordo knows that the chances of him actually pulling off a win in the Ford 400, and Johnson not finishing the race or finishing lower than 18th, is slim to none.

Crown Johnson as the Nextel Cup Chase winner.

Now, to the real drama this weekend, which long-shot drivers have the best chance of pulling an upset? Johnson is 5.5 to 1 on the BetUS board to win the Ford 400. I’m going to say that he’s a good bet against because he only has to finish in the top ten to secure the championship. If there is every a time for Jimmie to play it safe, it will be in this race.

Gordo is a BetUS 5 to 1 on the board. I thought Gordo might be a good bet, but now that I think about it, he’s probably a good bet against. The odds are too low to wager on the guy who owns the car that will be driven by the Cup Champion.

So, who’s left? I’m going to go with 3 guys who have been on the cusp lately:

Martin Truex Jr. – BetUS NASCAR odds of 9.5 to 1 = Martin finished second two races ago in the Dickies 500. He’s been driving very well and the fact that the Bass Pro Shops logo is on his car has to mean something, right? I keep wondering how many freakin’ fishing poles Bass Pro Shops sells. It’s got to be a lot. Martin could come up big in this race as he is only 1 of 5 drivers to have a win at the Homestead.

Greg Biffle – BetUS NASCAR odds of 8 to 1 = Biffle has won the last three finales. That makes him a certain play in this situation. Also, Greg has been driving well. He practically owns this track and that makes him the most likely winner, based on odds, in this race.

Carl Edwards – BetUS NASCAR odds of 12 to 1 = Edwards finished second last week to Johnson. That means that he is handling his car well. With Johnson and Gordon sort of just trying to finish well in this thing, and Tony Stewart receiving absolutely no good luck this year, Edwards has sort of done well - - for his standards. Expect a great showing this Sunday.

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