posted February 14, 2009 at 14:00 EST in NASCAR Free Picks
Daytona 500 - Hat Trick Picks
by Robby Maddux
Much to the delight of the online NASCAR betting nation, it's time to hear the command of, ''Gentlemen, start your engines!'' It's the four most famous words in all of motorsports that will send 43 roaring stockcars onto the track to run in the 51st Daytona 500, which also marks race 1-of-36 on the 2009 schedule. The Great American Race is NASCAR's ''Super Bowl'', and being the most prestigious and famed event in the sport, the season opener needs no hype. The only thing that could enhance this unprecedented spectacle is selecting the race winner if you bet on NASCAR.
So, let's cut through the chase (no pun intended) and start the campaign off in money making fashion, with a trio of Daytona 500 picks. If you're a Hendrick nation hater, look away now because my first two selections are from the team that's going to flex its muscle on Sunday and the following 35 races, highlighted by Jeff Gordon's return to winning form. While speaking about Hendrick Motorsports as a team, for those who may not know due to all the off-season driver shuffling and merging, veteran Mark Martin will replace Casey Mears and run a full schedule now as one of Hendrick's four horsemen.
As they celebrate their 25th anniversary, the Hendrick powers can look back on eight NASCAR Cup championships, 175 victories—including six Daytona 500s—and approximately over $290 million in race winnings. That's partially why it should come as no surprise Hendrick drivers are getting enormous oddsmakers respect to win The Great American Race. Before getting to your selections, here's a look at BetUS NASCAR odds placed on the four-horse Hendrick stable to win on Sunday, Feb. 15 (3:40pm EST: FOX)—Dale Earnhardt Jr. +600; Jeff Gordon +700; Jimmie Johnson +500 and Mark Martin +1200.
Now to business at hand! Let's begin with my selection to win, followed by two picks for drivers to finish in the top-three. There will be no hungrier driver on the legendary 2.5 mile track than Gordon. When the green flag waves on Sunday, the four-time Cup champion will be riding a 41-race winless streak. Gordon's 2008 winless season was his first since his rookie campaign in 1993. His performance level dropped dramatically from a strong 2007 season when he claimed six wins and a career-high 30 top-10 finishes. In fact, Gordon's 30 top-10s in 2007 nearly matched his total from his previous two seasons (32).
In 2008, Gordon finished with 13 top-5 finishes, 19 top-10's and won four poles. All solid numbers despite not finding Victory Lane. Gordon's teammate Johnson was obviously first at adapting in the COT among Hendrick drivers, and any other driver in NASCAR for that matter solidified by his title three-peat, as the COT made it's full-season debut. Gordon and his crew was slower than other elites in figuring out the nuances of the car's new program, though he showed sings of catching up with a strong finish in the Chase. Gordon ran in the top-10 in seven of the last ten Chase races.
Bad racing luck, miscommunications and poor setups were also factors contributing to Gordon's goose egg laid in last season's win column. But with a full year of COT experience in his review mirror, Gordon will get back into Victory Lane in 2009 multiple times, and I like his chances of starting his turnaround immediately at Daytona. Following an off-season of note's trading with Johnson, testing and working on areas they struggled in last year will payoff.
In 16 career Daytona 500 starts, Gordon owns the most wins among active drivers with three, while earning five top-5 finishes, eight top-10's and one pole. Including the circuit's second season visit to Daytona, he has six wins in 32 career races there along with eleven top-5 finishes, 17 top-10's and four poles to his credit. Numbers that certainly indicate it's a track where he's more than capable of ending his winless drought. Gordon won Thursday's first 150 qualifier, starting him in Row 2 on Sunday from position three.
Free NASCAR Picks: Jeff Gordon +700 (To win)
Last year's headlines were dominantly captivated by Johnson's three-peat championship accomplishment, and rightfully so, as he joined Cale Yarborough to be NASCAR's only other driver to win three consecutive titles. En route to his historical feat, Johnson overcame a slow start last season but I expect him to begin 2009 where he left off last season—strong! Last year, Carl Edwards’ average finish in the final five races of the season was 2.0, and Johnson still put him in his rear-view mirror before raising the Cup.
As astonishing as his three-peat championship was last year, NASCAR experts, analysts and oddsmakers are calling for the first ever four-peat in the sport's history. In fact, oddsmakers are confident enough in Johnson to pull off the would be unprecedented feat to have honored him as the odds on favorite to do so, priced at +300 to raise the Cup again in 2009. A four-peat winner would rank among the greatest all-time feats in the entire world of sports.
Johnson ran a respectable 14th in the Budweiser Shootout. He sat on the pole in the second event at Daytona in 2008 and won The Great American Race in 2006. In his seven career 500 starts, he also has collected four top-5s and four 10-top finishes, including a solid 13.6 average of finish. Johnson is simply too good to leave off your online Daytona 500 betting ticket. Johnson's third-place finish in Thursday's first duel will have him starting from the seventh position on Sunday.
Free Sprint Cup Picks: Jimmie Johnson +225 (Top-3 Finish)
My dark horse and sole pick outside of Hendrick Motorsports to be near the front when the checkers wave is Roush Racing's Carl Edwards, towing healthy odds of +1000 to win, though I'm investing in him to run in the top-three priced at +350. Last season, Edwards started second and was runner-up in the Chase, finishing with an overall Sprint Cup series-best nine wins. Incidentally, he finished second in the Nationwide Series standings, too. He was on eventual three-peat champion Johnson's bumper throughout the Chase and in terms of 2008 regular-season stats, he was better than Johnson in several major categories, including series-bests top-5's (19), top-10's (27) average of finish (9.5), most laps ran on lead lap (9993) and finished with the highest driver ranking of 108.6.
Cousin Carl was king of intermediate tracks (1.5 miles) last season, but has proven to be no free pass on larger configurations, as well. This will be only his fifth Daytona 500 start, where he hasn't made much noise with his best finish being 12th. Last year, he finished 19th but in the second race there in 2008 he posted a much improved second-place. Edwards has made eight career overall starts at the track rich in tradition and fame, but has never found Victory Lane, however, he owns two top-5s and two top-10 finishes. Edwards will begin the 500 from 16th, following his solid eighth-place Duel 2 run.
Free Daytona 500 Picks: Carl Edwards +350 (Top-3 Finish)
NASCAR wagering online has become a popular practice of both novice and the most experienced gamblers in the business, due in part to its excitement, large volume of reliable resources used for handicapping (equal to and arguably more so than other sports) and bankroll building odds. Weekly races, with an occasion off week, there's plenty of time to do your homework and stay abreast of all the action between events. And don't forget about the many BetUS driver head-to-head matchup available for every race.
For newcomers to the world of NASCAR gambling, an enormous amount of information can be obtained from a daily program called NASCAR Now that airs on ESPN2 and keeps fans up to speed throughout the season. To get even more in-depth information on car's strengths, or lack thereof, be sure to watch qualifying for each event and pay close attention to driver's interviews. You can often get a good idea of how drivers feel about their chances of winning during interviews, as optimism or discouragement is easily detected.
Four those looking for weekly season-long action, here's a bonus selection from the various BetUS futures. Last year, Ford and Chevrolet both ended up with 11 victories in the 2008 season. Chevrolet collected a series-best 13 poles and also dominated the field in laps led throughout the season with a total of 4,194. The manufacturer led most of its laps on superspeedways. Six Chevrolets make up the Daytona 500's first eight starting spots, and with Hendrick fielding four Chevrolets weekly, this is a strong investment:
2009 NASCAR Predictions: 2009 Sprint Cup Manufacturer Winner - Chevrolet Even Money
