posted April 22, 2009 at 11:23 EST in NASCAR Free Picks
NASCAR Betting - Sweet Home Alabama Smoke!
by Robby Maddux
Like a rebuilding MLB club, an NFL quarterback leading a new team, recently acquired NBA players or an NHL squad calling on a first year coach, all these scenarios require time to become successors. Whether it be gaining experience, learning new schemes, forming team chemistry or becoming familiar with a new team's members, it all comes over a period that eventually generates winners. Rarely does it happen right away, and more times than not, it takes a full season or longer to yield positive results.
The very same goes for NASCAR from every aspect. When Tony Stewart left Joe Gibbs Racing at the end of 2008 to form the new Stewart-Haas Racing team in 2009, as car owner/driver, few online NASCAR betting gurus gave the newly born organization a chance to post a first-year win. If any of the so called experts gave Stewart the slightest of chances of claiming his third Sprint Cup title, they were probably laughed off the face of the sports wagering planet.
But Smoke's success through the first eight races of the season with his new team, the gurus and experts suddenly are looking silly. Although he doesn't have a win, the 2002 and 2005 champion is off to the best start of his career. He has three top-five finishes and six top-10s, placing him fourth in the points standings. Those are stronger numbers earned through the first eight races than any posted during his ten seasons at Joe Gibbs Racing.
Should he maintain his average start of 9.0 and average finish of 9.5, he would establish career bests in both categories. Last week, he was runner-up to winner Mark Martin at Phoenix, which made for his third consecutive top-5 finish. If you bet on NASCAR, you have to be thinking a victory can't be far away.
Smoke is known for breaking out of the gates slow early in campaigns but heats up along with the summer temps. Collectively, only 12 of his 33 career Cup wins have come in the first half of any season. To put that into perspective, he was 14th in points prior to the halfway mark with no wins, three top-10s and one top-5 when he won the 2005 title. In 2002, he was fifth in points with five top-10s and winless through 18-of-36 races.
The fast start has lessened any stress he may have had as a first-year owner/driver. Stewart's demeanor reflects on his performance, and being one of the most aggressive drivers on the track, that's good news for 42 other competitors. There's a spring in his step and when watching interviews, Stewart seems relaxed and far more happier compared to the past several seasons. He was first in line of a contingent of drivers to congratulate Martin at Phoenix in Victory Lane even after finishing a disappointing second.
Stewart, who has put his heart and soul into making Stewart-Haas a success, has done a stellar job by utilizing his experience, learning new schemes, forming team chemistry and becoming familiar with his new team's members from the offices to the pit crew. All components mentioned earlier that generates winners. And for Stewart-Hass Racing, it's obvious the team fits the bill of rare instant success as a new organization rebuilding from Ground Zero.
Following last week's race Smoke said, "We're getting there, man. I'm telling you, we're so close. We're going to get us a win here soon. The last three weeks have just been amazing, I mean, it's been so much fun. We've been in contention. We have led laps. We are doing everything right. It's just a matter of time.'' Stewart is known for being brutally honest, and there's no reason as a bettor not to invest in those statements if you bet on NASCAR.
Is Sunday's Aaron's 499 at the 2.66-miles Talladega Superspeedway the race he takes the checkers with his new team? BetUS NASCAR odds are giving him a decent shot, pricing Stewart at +900, which is oddsmakers third-choice with Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr. owning the same odds. Kyle Busch is the race favorite priced at +500 and Jeff Gordon is second-choice at +800.
Oddsmakers have placed Stewart all over the board, ranging from +800 (twice) to +4000. Through the first eight races his average odds to win are +18.25. At Talladega, Smoke's earned one win, nine top-fives and 12 top-ten finishes with a respectable 13.3 average of finish in 20 career starts. With Stewart's optimism (which is legit, unlike Jr.'s weekly optimism that's burying his supporters) and worthy stats in Alabama, he's certainly worth investing in with stout online betting value to win. As well, another wise NASCAR wagering selection would be a bet on Stewart to run in the top-three, priced at +300.
Free NASCAR Picks: Tony Stewart +900 (Win) and +300 (Top-3)



